Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Perpetual Open Interest Hits $200M as Year-End Bets Intensify

Bitcoin perpetual open interest has surged as traders increasingly position for a potential year-end rally in 2025. Recent developments highlight growing speculative activity across cross-perpetual fund-rate arbitrage strategies and institutional exposure to digital assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price remains below its peak despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and political developments affecting the broader market.

Market data from Pendle's Boros fund-rate trading platform shows Bitcoin perpetual open interest has surpassed $200 million, marking an all-time high for the product. This surge reflects heightened demand for structured yield strategies that offer fixed returns with minimal directional exposure. The protocol enables arbitrage across BTC and ETH markets on Hyperliquid and Binance, delivering annualized yields between 5.98% and 11.4%.

As Bitcoin hovers near $89,433, traders are navigating a complex landscape of macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory shifts. According to market analysis, institutional adoption of tokenized U.S. Treasurys has also accelerated, with the market growing 50x in under two years to nearly $7 billion in total value. This trend underscores a broader shift toward on-chain finance, where traditional fixed-income instruments are being reimagined through blockchain-based settlement mechanisms.

Why the Standoff Happened

The rising open interest in Bitcoin perpetuals coincides with a period of heightened uncertainty for digital-asset treasury (DAT) companies. MSCI has proposed removing firms whose cryptocurrency holdings exceed 50% of total assets from its global benchmarks. This move could trigger significant outflows for companies like Strategy, which has seen its stock tumble over 40% this year as Bitcoin's price has lagged expectations. The firm, once a pure-play software company, has become a focal point in the debate over how traditional equity indexes treat crypto-focused businesses.

The proposed index exclusion is part of a broader effort to align benchmarks with investment fund standards, as MSCI argues that DAT companies resemble funds rather than operational businesses. However, companies in the sector argue that the rule unfairly penalizes innovation and could stifle the broader adoption of crypto as a strategic corporate asset. The decision, due by January 15, has already sparked discussions among other index providers, raising the likelihood of a wider industry-wide shift.

How Markets Reacted

Bitcoin's recent price action has reflected a mix of institutional caution and speculative enthusiasm. While spot ETFs have recorded outflows in the past week, Bitcoin perpetuals and tokenized U.S. Treasurys have attracted inflows, suggesting a shift in risk appetite among investors. The price remains within a narrow trading range, supported by defensive positioning in the options market as the largest Bitcoin options expiry in history approaches on December 26.

In the altcoin space, Ethereum and XRP have also shown signs of stabilization. XRP has continued to attract ETF inflows, bucking the broader trend of outflows in BTC and ETH products. This divergence highlights the growing diversification of demand across the crypto asset class, as investors seek alternative avenues for yield and exposure.

Meanwhile, the tokenized U.S. Treasury market is gaining traction as a regulated entry point to DeFi. BlackRock's USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund has amassed nearly $2 billion in assets under management, reflecting the appeal of on-chain short-term U.S. Treasury exposure. This growth is being driven by institutional demand for liquidity, transparency, and regulatory clarity in the digital asset space.

What Analysts Are Watching

The upcoming MSCI decision and the record Bitcoin options expiry are two key events that could shape the market's trajectory in early 2026. Analysts are closely monitoring how traders reposition after the expiry on December 26, which could trigger a volatility spike as hedging mechanics reset. Additionally, the outcome of the index review will have implications for DAT companies, potentially influencing their access to capital and investor sentiment.

On the crypto trading front, the launch of 5x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs by Volatility Shares has intensified the debate over risk management in the market. These products, which amplify daily price moves by five times, could attract retail and institutional investors seeking speculative exposure but also raise concerns over underperformance due to volatility decay.

As the year draws to a close, the broader financial landscape remains dynamic. With tokenized assets, structured yield strategies, and traditional equities all experiencing shifts in demand, investors are navigating a complex but potentially rewarding environment. The coming weeks will offer a clearer picture of whether the crypto market can break free of its recent range and establish a more definitive trend.