Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Overextended Bulls Clash with $102K Support in Deepening Bear Market

Bitcoin's bearish momentum intensified in late November 2025 as key indicators signaled mounting pressure on the cryptocurrency market. The NAV of MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell below 1, indicating its market value had dipped below the value of its Bitcoin holdings minus liabilities, a sign of investor unease about the company's debt-heavy acquisition strategy according to reports. Analysts noted that while MSTR's aggressive Bitcoin purchases initially drove demand, this effect has waned, with nearly $48.1 billion of implied Bitcoin demand failing to translate into actual purchases.

Institutional and retail demand for Bitcoin and altcoins also weakened. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded $870 million in outflows on November 14, the highest since October 7, led by Grayscale's GBTC and BlackRock's IBIT. Ethereum ETFs similarly faced $260 million in outflows, underscoring a broader retreat in institutional interest. Retail demand for XRP remained subdued, with futures open interest hovering near $3.78 billion, a decline from November 1 levels.

Market sentiment turned increasingly bearish. Over 88% of Bitcoin positions were long bets, a sign of overextended bullish positioning, while the Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 16, nearing early March lows. On-chain data from CryptoQuant showed the Bull Score Index dropping to 20 from 80 in October, reflecting a deepening bearish phase. Long-term holders (LTHs) sold 815,000 BTC in the last 30 days, the highest since January 2024, exacerbating downward pressure.

Technical indicators highlighted risks of a deeper correction. Bitcoin's 365-day moving average (MA) at $102,000 emerged as a critical support level, having historically acted as a psychological barrier during prior bull cycles according to analysis. A failure to reclaim this level could accelerate a bear market. Meanwhile, short-term holders faced near-capitulation losses of 12.79%, with new investors down 3.46% and those holding for a month at a 7.71% loss according to data.

Market volatility reached crisis levels, with $1.1 billion in liquidations recorded in 24 hours, including a $44.29 million BTC-USDT position on HTX according to reports. Analysts likened the stress to the FTX collapse era, noting Bitcoin's RSI had fallen to oversold territory for the first time since 2022. A $131 million short position on Hyperliquid faced liquidation if Bitcoin reached $111,770, a level within striking distance as of November 10.

Despite the bearish outlook, some analysts remained cautiously optimistic. Willy Woo argued that MSTR's survival above $183.19 per share by 2027 would prevent forced Bitcoin sales, while CryptoQuant's Ki-Young Ju highlighted a potential stabilizing zone near $94,000, tied to 6–12 month holder cost bases. However, the broader consensus emphasized caution, with institutional outflows, weak retail demand, and deteriorating technical indicators painting a grim picture for Bitcoin's near-term prospects.