Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Outflow Dilemma: Selling Pressure vs. Whale Accumulation

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has flagged a significant $7 billion outflow of Bitcoin from long-term holder wallets since mid-October, marking the first notable decline in illiquid supply in the second half of 2025, according to TradingView. The movement of approximately 62,000 BTC from dormant accounts has raised concerns about increased selling pressure and potential headwinds for Bitcoin's price recovery, as the cryptocurrency trades near $113,550, down from its record high of $125,000 in early October.

Illiquid supply—coins held in long-dormant wallets that rarely trade—has historically acted as a stabilizing force for Bitcoin's price. A shrinking illiquid supply often signals that long-term holders are offloading assets, increasing circulating liquidity and potentially fueling short-term volatility. According to Glassnode, this outflow coincides with a broader shift in holder behavior, as mid-sized wallets (holding $10,000 to $1 million in BTC) have consistently sold since late 2024. Momentum buyers have largely exited, and dip-buyers have failed to absorb the growing supply, creating an imbalance that pressures prices until fresh demand emerges.

Despite the outflow, whale wallets (those holding 1,000+ BTC) have bucked the trend, accumulating 16,300 BTC over the past 30 days, according to Coinotag. This quiet buying, coupled with the absence of large-scale sell-offs since October 15, suggests some institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. However, analysts caution that without renewed inflows, the market remains vulnerable to further stagnation or retracement, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

Bitcoin's current price action reflects the tension between these opposing forces. While bulls aim for a retest of $115,000, the path to $120,000 appears increasingly uncertain. On-chain data indicates that the 62,000 BTC outflow has expanded circulating supply, making sustained rallies harder to achieve. "Without stronger spot demand, the on-chain supply-demand gap will keep pressure on prices," noted Glassnode.

The market's consolidation above $108,000 hinges on whether new buyers—both retail and institutional—step in to counter the outflow. For now, Bitcoin ETFs offer a mixed signal: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $20.33 million in inflows on October 23, led by BlackRock's IBIT, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed $127.51 million in redemptions, according to Coinpedia. This divergence underscores crypto's fragmented investor sentiment amid broader geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S.-China tensions, as covered by CryptoNews.

While short-term dynamics are bearish, some analysts emphasize Bitcoin's structural advantages. A Fidelity Digital Assets report projects that nearly 42% of Bitcoin's supply could become illiquid by 2032 if current trends persist, driven by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. This long-term scarcity narrative may eventually offset near-term selling pressures, particularly if macroeconomic conditions improve or geopolitical risks abate.

For now, market participants are advised to monitor whale activity and illiquid supply trends closely. As Glassnode noted, "The bull cycle remains in a late-stage accumulation phase, not a definitive end," but without renewed momentum, Bitcoin's next move—higher or lower—will depend on balancing supply-side pressures with demand-side resilience, as reported by Benzinga.

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