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Bitcoin reserves held on over-the-counter (OTC) desks have experienced a significant decline, dropping from approximately 480,000 BTC in September 2021 to around 146,000 BTC currently. This reduction in OTC reserves has persisted even after Bitcoin's price surpassed the $100,000 mark, indicating a robust and consistent demand for the cryptocurrency.
Analysts from CryptoQuant, through the insights of analyst Darkfost, have suggested that this trend could be a warning sign. As liquidity in the OTC market diminishes, institutional buyers may increasingly turn to public exchanges. This shift could introduce volatility due to slippage and thinner order books on these exchanges.
Currently, U.S. exchanges collectively hold nearly 1 million BTC in sell-side inventory. This substantial pool of
could face further depletion if the OTC market continues to contract. Additionally, miners hold about 117,000 BTC off-exchange. If these reserves are liquidated, it would exacerbate the supply tightness.On-chain metrics, such as Hash Ribbons, have indicated signs of miner capitulation, suggesting that miners may also be inclined to sell their holdings. This potential liquidation by miners could further tighten the supply of Bitcoin.
On the other hand, the dwindling supply of Bitcoin in the OTC market might signal growing long-term accumulation. This accumulation could set the stage for a bullish breakout once demand shifts from the OTC market to public exchanges.

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