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Bitcoin's open interest has plummeted to a 6-month low, signaling a significant deleveraging phase in the cryptocurrency market. Open interest—the total value of outstanding futures and derivatives contracts—has dropped to $114 billion, with
(BTC) open interest falling to approximately 1.3 million as of November 24. This represents the sharpest 30-day decline of the cycle, , who cited historical parallels to the 2022 bear market. The drop underscores a market-wide shift as traders close speculative positions, with Binance accounting for much of the contraction. "Historically, these cleansing phases have often been essential to forming a solid bottom and setting the stage for a renewed bullish trend," Darkfost noted, highlighting how forced closures and reduced leverage can rebalance markets.The selloff has been amplified by broader market pressures. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs are on track for their worst month of outflows since their debut, with investors withdrawing $3.5 billion in November alone. BlackRock's IBIT, which holds 60% of the ETF category's assets, has seen $2.2 billion in redemptions, exacerbating downward pressure on BTC.
, estimating that every $1 billion in ETF withdrawals correlates with a 3.4% drop in Bitcoin's price. Meanwhile, institutional actions, such as JPMorgan's push to exclude Bitcoin-heavy firms like MicroStrategy from equity indices, have fueled fears of further debanking risks and liquidity constraints .Technical indicators suggest a fragile equilibrium. Bitcoin's price has retreated to $87,500, down 20% from a month ago and 30% from its October peak. While some analysts see a potential rebound, key support levels remain critical. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, argued that a sustained recovery above $90,000–$96,000 could reignite a bullish trend, as "fear and panic are max during the past days," creating "the best opportunities in the markets"
. However, James Check of CoinEngineer warned that leveraged liquidations may not yet be complete, with a drop below $80,000 posing a realistic risk. "A two-standard-deviation liquidation event has already occurred, but remaining pockets of leverage could trigger further declines," he said .
Market sentiment reflects deep caution. The Bitcoin fear and greed index hit 11—the lowest since November 2025—while open interest on major exchanges like CME has fallen to levels not seen since April 2025. Short-term holders have capitulated, shifting sentiment from positive to negative, according to CryptoQuant. Meanwhile, Asian markets have emerged as a counterbalance to U.S. selling pressure, with APAC trading volumes surging 69% year-over-year. Korean exchanges, in particular, show persistent buy pressure, with Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant noting that "BTC cycle floor is being built in Asia" .
Looking ahead, the path for Bitcoin remains uncertain. While deleveraging and reduced speculative exposure could stabilize prices, institutional withdrawals and macroeconomic factors—such as the Federal Reserve's December rate-cut expectations—add complexity. A decisive break above $90,000 may alleviate bearish sentiment, but a failure to hold key support levels could extend the downturn. As one analyst put it, "The current cleanup could determine whether Bitcoin is nearing a correction bottom or slipping into a deeper bear phase"
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