Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's OG Whales Could Be Holding Back the Next Bull Run

Bitcoin can still hit $160K by Christmas with an average Q4 comeback, according to some industry observers, who point to historical price patterns and potential future volatility. Diaman Partners, a research firm, has undertaken a detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s potential drawdowns in the coming years, utilizing the 200-week moving average as a key metric. The model, rooted in Adam Back’s methodology, suggests that Bitcoin's price has historically found support at or near this average, with exceptions largely tied to external shocks like the 2022 FTX collapse [1].

The firm conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate possible price scenarios, modeling 1,000 historical series based on power law functions of annualized returns and volatility. The results indicate that by December 2026—potentially the end of the next crypto winter—Bitcoin could experience a 5% chance of dipping below $41,000, although the 5th percentile target remains around $60,000. This analysis also suggests that if the price rises further in 2024 and 2025 before a potential drawdown, the support level in late 2026 could be over $80,000 [1].

Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo has also weighed in on Bitcoin’s current price stagnation, suggesting that early investors who bought in at much lower levels are still holding large portions of the supply. These “OG whales,” who acquired Bitcoin in 2011 at $10 or lower, are less likely to sell their holdings in the near future, creating a bottleneck for new capital to absorb each BTC sold. According to Woo, this concentration of supply could be one of the factors slowing Bitcoin’s upward momentum [2].

Woo’s perspective has sparked debate within the community. Another prominent voice in the space, known as Parman, argued that these early holders are unlikely to sell large quantities of their BTC, given their massive gains. “They’ll sell a little, maybe 10 million, tops,” Parman said, emphasizing that the number of early investors is relatively small and their selling pressure unlikely to have a major market impact [2].

Meanwhile, the recent volatility in Bitcoin’s price—such as the flash crash in which over 24,000 BTC were liquidated—has raised questions about the stability of the market. Despite the bearish event, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory. The combination of strong ETF inflows, increasing institutional interest, and a maturing market could contribute to a more predictable price movement, especially as Bitcoin approaches the end of its current four-year cycle [1].

While the models and analyses are informative, they must be interpreted with caution. The cryptocurrency market remains highly unpredictable, and external factors such as macroeconomic shifts, regulatory changes, and market sentiment can significantly alter expected outcomes. Diaman Partners’ study, while grounded in historical data and probabilistic modeling, is not a forecast and should not be used as investment advice. Similarly, the views of analysts like Willy Woo are based on market observations rather than definitive predictions [1].

Source:

[1] Estimating Bitcoin's support levels for the next cycle bottom (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-future-bear-market-bottom-could-be-dollar60k-data)

[2] Bitcoin Not Rising Quickly Enough? Analyst Says Early ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-not-rising-quickly-enough-203110676.html)