Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's October Curse vs. Bulls' Moonvember Gambit

Super Bull Tom Lee Predicts Rally for Bitcoin and Ethereum – Here Are the Details

Bitcoin and Ethereum traders are bracing for a volatile October as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China drive sharp shifts in market sentiment. Despite Bitcoin's struggles to extend its "Uptober" gains, top analyst Tom Lee remains bullish, forecasting a significant rally for both cryptocurrencies as on-chain data and technical indicators hint at a potential reversal.

Bitcoin traded near $111,300 as of press time, hovering within its weekly range of $107,000 to $111,500 but remaining 2.3% below its monthly open. The cryptocurrency faces pressure to avoid another negative Uptober performance, a scenario last seen in 2014 (-13%) and 2025 (-4%). Historical data from CoinGlass suggests Bitcoin typically gains 20% in October during bull markets, pointing to a potential target of $130,000 if the trend holds, according to a CryptoNews report. Meanwhile, Ethereum fell 6.5% to $3,957 this month, though on-chain metrics indicate accumulation among large holders and a possible rebound.

The market's mixed performance reflects broader uncertainty. U.S.-China tensions have spurred a rotation in ETF allocations, with Bitcoin seeing $20 million in inflows while Ethereum lost $127 million. Analysts attribute this divergence to diverging fundamentals: Bitcoin's limited supply and macro-driven demand contrast with Ethereum's exposure to Ethereum-based assets and regulatory risks, a dynamic highlighted by CryptoNews.

Technical analysis offers cautious optimism. Ethereum's price action has formed a "triple bottom" pattern near $3,750–$3,800, a classic support level suggesting strong buying interest. A break above $4,000 could confirm a bullish reversal, with near-term targets at $4,280, the CryptoNews piece notes. Glassnode data further supports this narrative, showing increased accumulation among large Ethereum holders.

Social media sentiment reinforces the narrative. Twitter users highlight Bitcoin's "worst Uptober ever" but note historical precedents for a "Moonvember" recovery, as seen in 2013 (+60%), 2017 (+50%), and 2021 (+40%), a trend discussed by CryptoNews. Tom Lee's bullish stance aligns with these patterns, though traders remain wary of macroeconomic headwinds, including last month's 2.9% CPI reading and the looming government shutdown risk.