Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's November Fate Hangs on Fed's Policy Pivot: Bull Run or Correction?

Bitcoin's Price Trajectory in November Hinges on Fed Policy and Market Sentiment

The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision on October 29, 2025, has become a pivotal catalyst for Bitcoin's (BTC USD) short-term outlook. With markets pricing in a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, analysts are split on whether the move will reignite bullish momentum or trigger a corrective phase for the cryptocurrency, according to a TradingView preview. The Fed's policy shift, combined with technical indicators and institutional flows, is shaping two divergent scenarios for Bitcoin's November performance.

Bitcoin currently consolidates near the $113,000–$115,000 range, caught between key technical levels and macroeconomic forces. A hawkish Fed statement or prolonged rate hold could push prices toward $104,000, with deeper support near $92,000 at risk if risk-off sentiment intensifies, the TradingView preview noted. Conversely, a dovish policy adjustment may propel Bitcoin toward $120,000 and beyond, particularly if institutional demand continues to drive ETF inflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $3.5 billion in new capital this month alone, with institutional holdings now accounting for 12% of total supply—the highest on record, according to an Investing.com analysis.

Technical analysts highlight two primary scenarios ahead of the FOMC decision. The first envisions a continuation with pullback, where Bitcoin trades slightly higher into the meeting before a sharp post-Fed reversal tests the $109,000–$110,000 support zone. The second scenario—a retracement followed by a rally—suggests Bitcoin could fill a CME Futures gap before the meeting, setting up a potential all-time high by November, the TradingView preview added. On-chain data further complicates the narrative: liquidity heatmaps show short-term sell-side liquidity stacked between $111,000 and $117,000, creating conditions for a short squeeze if prices break above $117,000, according to a Brave New Coin analysis.

Macro factors remain tilted in Bitcoin's favor. The Fed's expected rate cut would bring policy rates to 3.75%–4%, aligning with historical risk-on phases that have previously driven BTC to record highs, the Investing.com analysis observed. A weaker U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) below 99 and easing inflation near 3% are enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against fiat devaluation. Meanwhile, capital rotation from gold into crypto has intensified, with Bitcoin-to-gold ratios returning to pre-tariff levels. Yet uncertainty lingers. Post-FOMC volatility could be amplified by diverging Fed member views, as highlighted by a Cointelegraph report noting a recent hawkish dissent that signaled potential friction over December rate cuts. Additionally, U.S.–China trade tensions, though temporarily eased, remain a wildcard that could disrupt risk appetite. Over 56% of market participants expect the Fed to cut rates further to 3.5%–3.75% in December, but the cuts' impact may be muted if trade tensions resurge, the Cointelegraph piece warned.

Analysts' price predictions vary widely. Some bullish forecasts target $140,000 by year-end, citing historical patterns where Bitcoin has averaged 46% gains in November over the past 12 years, according to a NewsBTC analysis. Others warn of a potential $500,000 2026 target, though such long-term optimism contrasts with shorter-term caution, as summarized in a TradingView summary. On the bearish side, a breakdown below $109,000 could expose liquidity pockets near $100,000, according to traders monitoring key support levels cited by the Investing.com analysis.

Institutional confidence remains a stabilizing force. ETF inflows and corporate adoption—exemplified by MicroStrategy's $150,000 BTC price target—underscore Bitcoin's growing integration into traditional finance, according to a TradingNews piece. However, retail sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index, remains neutral at 42, suggesting cautious accumulation rather than euphoric buying, per a Forex.com update.

With Bitcoin trading near $115,000 as of October 28, the path forward depends on the Fed's messaging and subsequent market reactions. A clean breakout above $117,500 could confirm a sustained bullish trend, while a failure to hold $109,000 may prolong consolidation. As one analyst noted, "November has historically been one of Bitcoin's best-performing months. If the macro backdrop holds, we could see a credible path to new highs before year-end," the Cointelegraph piece concluded.