Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Nears Critical Wedge Breakout as Capital Inflows Surge to $82 Billion Amid $122,000-$116,000 Range Tension

Bitcoin is edging closer to a critical wedge breakout as capital inflows surge to $82 billion in the past 30 days, according to on-chain data. The cryptocurrency has consolidated near $118,782, confined within a narrowing wedge pattern formed between $109,000 and $123,000. This pattern, marked by compressed volatility and emotional market swings, has drawn heightened scrutiny from traders and analysts. Recent price action included a failed attempt to breach $122,000, which triggered a sharp reversal and panic selling, highlighting the market’s fragility ahead of a potential breakout [1].

The wedge’s upper boundary at $122,000 and lower support near $116,000 are critical junctures. A sustained move above $122,000 could validate the bullish case, while a breakdown below $116,000 may reignite bearish momentum. Analysts note that the current wedge reflects a classic emotional market cycle, characterized by phases of optimism, bull traps, and panic. The recent bull trap at $122,000 lured traders into expecting a sustained upward trend, but the subsequent reversal underscored market hesitation [1].

Capital inflows remain a key driver of Bitcoin’s resilience despite the recent pullback. Glassnode data shows inflows have reached $82 billion since mid-June 2025, though trailing the December 2024 peak of $135 billion. Positive realized profits and growing institutional participation reinforce the market’s upward bias. However, investor sentiment has not yet reached euphoric levels, suggesting there may still be room for appreciation before a cycle peak materializes [1].

Technical indicators add complexity to the outlook. The RSI indicator hovers near overbought territory, reflecting aggressive buying pressure but also signaling potential for a correction if fundamentals falter. Open interest and trading volume have surged at key levels, indicating increased positioning by both retail and institutional participants. Meanwhile, institutional activity has turned defensive; Galaxy Digital, for instance, reportedly sold 22,700 BTC to exchanges as a precautionary measure amid shifting market conditions [2].

The broader macroeconomic environment remains a wildcard. Geopolitical tensions and discussions around Trump-era tariffs have added to market uncertainty. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index oscillates between neutral and slightly bearish readings, reflecting a fragile balance between speculative fervor and risk aversion [4]. Traders are closely watching for catalysts such as Federal Reserve policy updates or macroeconomic data releases to determine the next directional move.

Bitcoin’s ability to defend the $116,000 support level will be pivotal in the near term. A successful test and retest could stabilize sentiment, while a breakdown might accelerate capital rotation into alternative assets. The wedge pattern’s resolution—whether bullish or bearish—will not only shape Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory but also influence broader risk appetite in digital asset markets [1].

Source: [1] https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-987796-20250725, [2] https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-988797-20250726, [3] https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-tariffs-live-updates-trump-says-eu-deal-50-50-us-japan-differ-on-trade-deal-profits-200619910.html, [4] https://cfgi.io/hedera-fear-greed-index/