Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Nears $118,500 as SOPR Surges to 1.23 and Regulatory Clarity Bolsters Long-Term Optimism

Bitcoin’s price is poised for renewed volatility as the cryptocurrency navigates critical resistance and support levels. Following a breakout above the $118,000 zone, BTC/USD has consolidated near $118,500, surpassing the 100-hourly simple moving average. The move has sparked speculation about a potential test of the $120,000 resistance level, with a successful breakout potentially driving the price toward $121,000 and beyond. A close above $121,000 could see further gains targetting $122,500 or even $123,200, according to technical analysis.

The immediate path for bulls hinges on maintaining control above $118,500. A breakdown below this level could trigger a retest of key support at $119,200, followed by the $118,500 and $118,200 zones. A failure to hold above $116,500 could signal a deeper correction, though the current on-chain environment suggests long-term holders are accumulating. The Spend Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric gauging the average profit or loss of spent Bitcoin, has risen to 1.23, its highest in months. While this indicates growing optimism, analysts note the reading remains below the 1.3 threshold historically associated with bull market peaks.

Market sentiment has shifted with unexpected commentary from Peter Schiff, a longtime critic of cryptocurrencies, who recently advised selling Ethereum to buy Bitcoin. This pivot underscores a growing preference for Bitcoin’s dominant market position amid uncertainty over altcoin resilience. Ethereum’s price, meanwhile, remains subdued near $3,720, with its trajectory seen as secondary to Bitcoin’s broader narrative. The broader crypto market appears to be aligning around Bitcoin’s performance, particularly as adoption and regulatory clarity evolve.

Long-term projections from industry analysts highlight a divergence between near-term and multi-year expectations. James Check of Glassnode has tempered enthusiasm for 2023 price targets, stating a $200,000 milestone for Bitcoin by year-end is “very improbable.” His analysis emphasizes structural factors such as miner economics and macroeconomic trends, which he argues require more time to align with such a surge. However, a five-year horizon could see Bitcoin surpassing $200,000 as institutional adoption accelerates. This contrast between short-term volatility and long-term potential underscores the need for investors to balance immediate technical signals with broader economic fundamentals.

Regulatory developments have also contributed to a cautiously bullish environment. The U.S. passage of the GENIUS Act, which provides a framework for payment stablecoins, signals growing acceptance of crypto within traditional finance. Combined with the absence of significant institutional selling pressure, this has created a neutral-to-bullish backdrop. On-chain data further supports this view, with long-term holdings (wallets retaining Bitcoin for over a year) rising by 12% in the past month. These metrics suggest a maturing market dynamic, though short-term traders remain split on momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which hovers near the neutral 50 level.

As the market approaches psychological thresholds, the outcome will depend on sustained accumulation from both retail and institutional participants. A decisive break above $120,000 could validate bullish scenarios, while a pullback below $118,500 may reignite bearish concerns. The interplay between technical resilience and macroeconomic factors will likely dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks, with investors advised to monitor key levels and on-chain behavior for confirmation of directional bias.