Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio Splits Analysts: Mid-Cycle Consolidation or Market Peak?

Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has emerged as a focal point for analysts assessing the cryptocurrency's trajectory, with mixed signals pointing to both caution and potential for further gains. As of late 2025, the MVRV ratio stands at approximately 2.1, placing Bitcoin in a "neutral to bullish" zone, according to on-chain data Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Signals Neutral to Bullish Market Phase^[4]. This level suggests that while the asset is no longer undervalued, it has not yet reached historical overbought conditions, which typically occur between 3.5 and 4 Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Signals Neutral to Bullish Market Phase^[4]. Analysts note that for the MVRV ratio to signal a market peak, Bitcoin would need to reach $140,000–$180,000, far above its current price of around $113,000 Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Signals Neutral to Bullish Market Phase^[4].

Historical context reveals a nuanced picture. The MVRV ratio reached a cycle high of 2.74 in March 2024, creating a bearish divergence as prices climbed to all-time highs in January 2025 without the indicator matching its previous peak Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Hints at Another Major Rally, Analysts Say^[1]. This divergence, observed in the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and transaction metrics, has historically preceded trend reversals Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Hints at Another Major Rally, Analysts Say^[1]. However, other analysts argue that the current MVRV reading aligns with mid-cycle consolidation patterns seen in 2017 and 2020, suggesting a "healthy digestion" phase rather than exhaustion Bitcoin’s Mid-Cycle Dynamics: An In-Depth Analysis^[2]. The ratio's Z-Score normalization further supports this view, indicating room for future growth Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential^[3].

Institutional demand and exchange dynamics add another layer of analysis. Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to a three-year low of 2.5 million BTC, signaling a potential supply shock as ETF inflows outpace mining output Bitcoin ETFs Consume More BTC Than Miners Produce^[6]. Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed 4,349.7 BTC in a single week, surpassing the 2,250 BTC mined during the same period . This institutional buying, coupled with reduced selling pressure from long-term holders, has tightened Bitcoin's available supply, creating favorable conditions for price appreciation Bitcoin’s Mid-Cycle Dynamics: An In-Depth Analysis^[2]. BlackRock's IBIT ETF alone recorded $1.8 billion in inflows, contributing to a $3.24 billion surge in ETF-related BTC purchases .

Price projections vary widely. Bullish scenarios cite continued Fed easing, ETF-driven liquidity, and historical correlations between ETF inflows and price peaks. For example, Standard Chartered projects $200,000 by late 2025 and $300,000 by 2026, while ARK Invest and FundStrat envision $250,000–$500,000 by 2030 Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit 10-Month High as Institutional Money Floods In^[7]. Conversely, bearish indicators-such as short-term holder MVRV reaching 1.33 (a local top threshold in previous cycles) and potential trade-war volatility-suggest corrections are possible Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Hints at Another Major Rally, Analysts Say^[1]Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit 10-Month High as Institutional Money Floods In^[7]. Citigroup's bear scenario even anticipates a drop to $83,000 under a recessionary backdrop Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit 10-Month High as Institutional Money Floods In^[7].

On-chain metrics highlight a dichotomy. While long-term holders (LT HODLers) maintain an average cost basis of $33,500 (MVRV of 3.11), their historical peak of 12 implies significant upside potential if the ratio reaches 8 Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential^[3]. Short-term holders, meanwhile, show a realized price near $97,000, acting as dynamic support in bull markets Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential^[3]. The 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score, currently under 1, suggests ample runway for positive price action Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential^[3].

Regulatory clarity and macroeconomic factors further underpin the bullish case. The U.S. SEC's streamlined ETF approval process and global regulatory progress have reduced uncertainty, enabling $5.95 billion in crypto ETF inflows in early October 2025 Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit 10-Month High as Institutional Money Floods In^[7]. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's volatility has halved post-ETF debut, reflecting deeper liquidity and institutional adoption Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit 10-Month High as Institutional Money Floods In^[7]. Deutsche Bank even forecasts that by 2030, most central banks may hold Bitcoin alongside gold Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit 10-Month High as Institutional Money Floods In^[7].

Despite these tailwinds, caution persists. The clustering of 30% of Bitcoin's supply within ±15% of current prices signals potential for sharp swings if sentiment shifts Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit 10-Month High as Institutional Money Floods In^[7]. Additionally, ETF-driven liquidity constraints could amplify price sensitivity during market downturns . As one analyst noted, "Bitcoin's long-term trajectory remains upward, fueled by record institutional ownership and tightening supply," but "short-term overbought signals could lead to choppiness" Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit 10-Month High as Institutional Money Floods In^[7].