Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin MVRV Double-Top Warns 75% Gain Could Trigger Correction Amid Retail Resilience, Institutional Caution

Bitcoin’s recent price trajectory has sparked debate among analysts regarding its potential for a short-term rebound versus a looming correction. Technical indicators such as the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) 365-Day Moving Average suggest a double-top formation—a pattern historically associated with bear markets, as seen in 2021 [1]. This pattern emerges when two distinct peaks occur roughly six months apart. Bitcoin’s first peak was recorded in June, with a second anticipated around September 10, potentially triggering a market-wide decline [1]. Analysts caution that a correction could begin earlier if the MVRV 365DMA lags further, as noted by CryptoQuant’s Yonsei Dent [1].

Despite these risks, accumulation trends indicate short-term resilience. Data from the Realized Price–UTXO Age Band chart reveals that investors holding Bitcoin for 1 week to 1 month increased their holdings by 3.6%, while 1-day to 1-week holders added 1.4% in the past month [1]. These purchases, clustered around $115,252–$117,762, suggest confidence in a near-term rally. Meanwhile, exchange-held Bitcoin reserves have fallen to 2.3 million BTC, a sign of shifting assets to private wallets and reduced immediate selling pressure [1].

Institutional sentiment, however, appears more cautious. CoinGlass data shows institutional investors offloaded $285.2 million in Bitcoin between July 21–23 but repurchased $375.5 million by July 24–25 [1]. While the latter hints at temporary bullishness, the two-day repurchase volume remains the lowest in months, signaling waning interest. This divergence between retail accumulation and institutional outflows highlights market uncertainty.

External factors, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s July 30 rate decision and the U.S.-EU trade pact, may further influence Bitcoin’s movement. A 97.4% probability of no rate cut, as per recent forecasts, is unlikely to spur a crypto rally [2]. Meanwhile, the trade pact’s impact has provided only modest support to Bitcoin’s price near $119,000 [3]. Analysts warn that the MVRV metric—a gauge of market health—suggests a critical inflection point as Bitcoin nears a 75% year-to-date gain [4]. If the double-top pattern materializes, a correction mirroring the 2021 bear market could unfold.

The interplay between accumulation activity and institutional caution underscores a delicate balance. While short-term buyers remain optimistic, broader indicators and macroeconomic shifts point to heightened risks. Investors are urged to approach the market with prudence, particularly as the projected September timeline looms.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin: Short-term rally, long-term risk? BTC faces double-top warning] [https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-short-term-rally-long-term-risk-btc-faces-double-top-warning/] [2] [Bitcoin News Today: U.S. Fed to Announce Rate Decision ...] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-fed-announce-rate-decision-july-30-97-4-probability-change-cut-spur-crypto-rally-2507/] [3] [Bitcoin Price Hits 75% Yearly Gain as MVRV Metric Warns ...] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-price-hits-75-yearly-gain-mvrv-metric-warns-market-peak-2507/] [4] [near $119k after trade cheer; Fed, crypto report eyed] [https://ca.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-price-today-near-119k-after-trade-cheer-fed-crypto-report-eyed-4120608]