Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin MVRV Bands Signal $130K Target If $110K Support Holds

Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators have sparked renewed discussion about its potential for a sharp upward move, with analysts emphasizing the MVRV pricing bands as a critical framework for assessing market conditions. According to Ali Martinez, a top market analyst, Bitcoin could target $130,000 if it sustains above the $110,000 support level [1]. This projection is rooted in the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) model, which uses statistical deviations from the mean to identify overbought or oversold conditions. As of July 23, 2025, Bitcoin traded near $118,782, hovering just below the +1.0σ deviation band at $130,756—a level historically associated with market optimism and potential local tops [1].

The MVRV bands, which function similarly to Bollinger Bands but are derived from on-chain data, highlight key thresholds for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. A critical test lies in maintaining support above the +0.5σ band at $109,858. A breakdown below $110,000 could trigger a deeper correction, potentially testing the mean band at $88,960 or the -0.5σ level at $68,062 [1]. This scenario underscores the fragility of the bullish case, which hinges on sustained buying pressure and institutional confidence.

Current on-chain metrics suggest a widening gap between Bitcoin’s realized price ($50,831) and its market price ($118,782), reflecting growing investor optimism [1]. This divergence implies that a significant portion of holders are in profit, a sign of accumulation but also a potential precursor to volatility. Coincodex analysts project a continuation of this trend, forecasting a rise to $122,019 in five days and $141,075 in a month [1]. However, these projections are conditional on Bitcoin maintaining its position above key support levels.

Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with Bitcoin trading at $118,178 as of press time, up 0.73% in the past 24 hours. Daily trading volume, however, has declined by 53.39% to $47.98 billion, a potential signal of short-term profit-taking [1]. The Fear & Greed Index, a gauge of investor psychology, has climbed to 72, nearing extreme greed territory, which typically indicates heightened risk tolerance [1].

The MVRV model’s relevance lies in its ability to contextualize Bitcoin’s price within historical statistical patterns. While the +1.0σ band suggests a potential target of $130,000, further gains may face resistance if external factors—such as macroeconomic volatility or regulatory developments—introduce uncertainty. Conversely, a failure to hold above $110,000 could prompt a reevaluation of risk, shifting the market dynamic toward correction rather than continuation [1].

Analysts caution that the MVRV bands are not predictive in isolation but serve as a tool to interpret Bitcoin’s behavior within broader market structures. The $110,000 threshold represents a convergence of technical and psychological significance. If Bitcoin consolidates above this level, it could reinforce the narrative of a multi-year bull market, despite macroeconomic headwinds [1].

In summary, the MVRV pricing bands present a compelling case for Bitcoin’s potential to reach $130,000, contingent on sustaining critical support. This scenario emphasizes the importance of monitoring key thresholds and aligning strategies with historical on-chain patterns. As the market navigates near-term volatility, the focus will remain on whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above $110,000 to unlock higher targets.

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands Hint At $130K, But Only If This Support Holds] (https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-mvrv-pricing-bands-hint-at-130k-but-only-if-this-support-holds/)