Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin MVRV near 2.2 signals potential price breakout ahead

Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, a key on-chain metric used to gauge the balance of unrealized profits and losses, is nearing a historically significant level, sparking speculation about a potential price breakout. Current on-chain data shows the MVRV ratio at approximately 2.2, converging toward its 365-day moving average. This pattern has historically preceded major Bitcoin (BTC) rallies, as the metric typically climbs toward overvaluation levels around 3.7 before a significant upward move [1]. The convergence has drawn comparisons to stock market behavior, where prices tend not to linger near long-term averages without making a decisive directional move [1].

At the same time, the Bitcoin futures market shows signs of cooling, which analysts view as a positive development. Despite BTC trading near $118,300, the volume bubble map indicates a shift from overheated red zones into more neutral and cooling regions [2]. This suggests that speculative activity is easing, and the current rally is increasingly driven by natural demand rather than excessive leverage, a sign of a healthier market structure [2].

Technically, Bitcoin is consolidating near critical support and resistance levels. On the daily chart, it remains close to the 20-day Bollinger Band middle line at around $118,327, indicating moderate bullish pressure. The narrowing of the bands over recent sessions points to reduced volatility and the potential for a breakout, as such compression often precedes expansion. The relative strength index (RSI) is currently at 59.32, showing neutral to mildly bullish momentum, with the next key level to watch being $119,900, the upper edge of the Bollinger Band. A successful breakout above this level could set the stage for a fresh rally toward $123,000 [3].

However, a breakdown below $116,700, the lower band boundary, would invalidate the current bullish structure and open the door to a deeper correction. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has traded within a range of $115,184 to $119,568, maintaining a 0.1% rise for the day, albeit still 3.7% below its July 14 all-time high of $122,838. Over the past month, however, it has gained 10%, demonstrating resilience during the consolidation phase [3].

Bitcoin has also remained above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, which is seen as a constructive sign for market strength. This metric suggests that near-term holders are not underwater, reducing the likelihood of panic selling and supporting a more stable price environment [4]. Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio’s current level of approximately 2.5 signals a relatively balanced market between profit-taking and accumulation, indicating that the network is neither overleveraged nor in a bearish correction [5].

Analysts caution that while the on-chain data and technical indicators are positive, the market remains in a delicate phase. A breakout above key resistance levels could trigger fresh buying momentum, while a breakdown below critical support may result in a retest of lower levels. Investors are closely monitoring both price action and on-chain metrics for confirmation of the next major move [6].

[1] https://crypto.news/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio-key-level-btc-breakout-ahead-2025/

[2] https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-btc-price-the-calm-before-the-storm-will-bulls-break-120k-this-week/

[3] https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-btc-holder-turns-30-000-into-40-million-after-12-years-massive-profit-signals-long-term-crypto-growth

[4] https://bitcoinnewsdigest.substack.com/p/deep-dive-7292025

[5] https://in.tradingview.com/scripts/analysis/

[6] https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-30-2025/