Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Model Projects 0.1 BTC Sufficient for Retirement by 2045

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Saturday, Jul 26, 2025 6:57 am ET2min read
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- Bitcoin researcher Smitty projects 0.1 BTC may suffice for retirement by 2045, based on a power law model linking Bitcoin’s historical price growth to future value.

- The model accounts for income, inflation, and regional cost disparities, showing most countries need 1–10 BTC by 2035, dropping to 0.1 BTC by 2045 under a $1.7M price assumption.

- Only 0.01%-0.02% of the global population owns 1 BTC, highlighting its rarity despite growing retirement interest in crypto.

- Analysts debate the model’s reliance on stable Bitcoin prices, with some cautioning against volatility risks and advocating diversified retirement strategies.

Bitcoin researcher Smitty has developed a model estimating that less than 1 BTC may suffice for retirement in most countries by 2035, with projections suggesting as little as 0.1 BTC could cover retirement needs in many regions by 2045. The analysis accounts for average income levels, inflation-adjusted costs, retirement age, and Bitcoin’s historical price trajectory under a power law model [1]. For 2035, most countries require between 1 and 10 BTC for retirement, while the 2045 forecast assumes Bitcoin’s value reaches $1.7 million, aligning with the power law’s linear regression of historical price resistance and support levels [1].

The power law model, derived from Bitcoin’s price history, posits a consistent correlation between time and value, underpinning the assumption that

Bitcoin
will retain or increase purchasing power amid inflation [1]. Smitty’s model highlights geographic disparities: retirees in high-cost regions like the U.S. and Europe would require larger holdings, while over half of countries globally could achieve retirement with less than 1 BTC by 2035. By 2045, the threshold drops further, with 0.1 BTC potentially sufficient in many nations [1].

The rarity of holding 1 BTC is underscored by blockchain data, which estimates only 0.01%-0.02% of the global population owns at least one coin—a smaller share than the estimated 16 million millionaires worldwide. Excluding institutional holdings, unique individuals with 1 BTC number between 800,000 and 850,000, making “wholecoiners” a rare demographic [1].

Analysts note that while the model’s assumptions are mathematically plausible, they depend on Bitcoin’s adherence to the power law and stable or rising prices. The Crypto Flow Zone model, referenced in Freeduhm’s analysis, cautions that annual spending rates directly impact sustainability. For example, relying on 0.1 BTC annually risks depleting holdings over time, emphasizing the need for conservative spending [4]. Conversely, Coinpedia’s 2025 report aligns with Smitty’s findings, stating that small Bitcoin allocations could secure retirement if the asset maintains its long-term growth trajectory [2].

Diversification remains a contentious topic. AOL’s 2025 article suggests allocating a small crypto percentage to retirement portfolios for growth potential, while The Fool warns of Bitcoin’s volatility and limited historical performance data [5][7]. A

Reddit
user challenges the 0.1 BTC sufficiency, advocating for holdings between 1 and 5 BTC to account for unforeseen expenses [6].

Projections also intersect with broader retirement strategies. Yahoo’s July 2025 article on building a $1 million retirement fund highlights the role of disciplined investing and early adoption of high-growth assets like Bitcoin, though outcomes remain speculative without market stability [8]. Analysts stress that success hinges on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, inflation rates, and individual financial discipline, with real-world outcomes shaped by market dynamics.

Sources:

[1] [Less Than 1 BTC Might Be Enough to Retire: Here’s Why](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6884b07acc8ce42f9a1bae3f/)

[2] [Bitcoin Needed for 96-Country Retirement Dips Below 1 BTC](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-needed-96-country-retirement-dips-1-btc-2035-study-finds-2507/)

[4] [Can You Really Retire On Just 1 Bitcoin By 2035? A Look](https://freeduhm.com/retire-on-just-1-bitcoin-by-2035-beyond-the-hype/)

[5] [Here's Why You May Want to Think Twice Before Including Bitcoin in Your 401(k)](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/07/25/heres-why-you-may-want-to-think-twice-before-inclu/)

[6] [If You Came Into a Windfall of $500,000, How Much of It Would You Invest in Bitcoin?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1m80yqz/if_you_came_into_a_windfall_of_500000_how_much_of/)

[7] [5 Reasons to Invest in Crypto When You're Retired](https://www.aol.com/5-reasons-invest-crypto-retired-144709842.html)

[8] [Can You Retire a Millionaire by Investing Just $10 a Day?](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retire-millionaire-investing-just-10-084400148.html)