Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Maturity Sheds Four-Year Halving Cycle Myth

Bitcoin’s market cycles have long been associated with its halving events—every four years, the block reward miners receive for verifying transactions is cut in half, reducing the rate of new Bitcoin supply. However, recent analysis challenges the conventional narrative that these halving events anchor Bitcoin’s bull and bear market cycles. Analyst James Check, in a recent assessment, argued that Bitcoin has experienced three distinct cycles since its inception, none of which were strictly tied to halving events. Instead, Check emphasized that the dynamics of adoption and structural shifts in the market—such as retail and institutional participation—are the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s price action.

Check categorized Bitcoin’s market history into three phases: an “adoption cycle” from 2011 to 2018, marked by early retail interest; an “adolescence cycle” from 2018 to 2022, characterized by speculative fervor and leverage; and the current “maturity cycle” from 2022 onward, defined by growing institutional participation and a shift toward stability. He noted that market transitions—such as the 2017 peak and 2022 bottom—were not driven by halvings but rather by broader trends in adoption and market structure. According to Check, these factors are now more predictive than the traditional four-year cycle anchored around halving events.

This view contrasts with the long-standing belief that halvings inherently induce supply shocks, leading to price surges in the year following the event. Historically, bull market peaks occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2021, all aligned with the years after halvings. However, as institutional and macroeconomic influences grow stronger, the role of halvings in shaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory appears to be diminishing. Check argued that Bitcoin’s current phase is more aligned with the broader characteristics of a mature asset, similar to gold, with potential for long-term stability and less dependency on the cyclical effects of supply reduction.

Other voices in the crypto space also question the relevance of the four-year cycle. Bitwise’s Matthew Hougan stated that the cycle is “not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026,” but he predicted that the trend is shifting toward a more extended bull market. Meanwhile, crypto entrepreneur TechDev highlighted that macroeconomic factors—such as dollar liquidity and ETF inflows—are increasingly shaping Bitcoin’s price action. The implication is that Bitcoin is no longer operating in isolation but is now deeply integrated into the broader financial system, influenced by traditional market dynamics.

Glassnode, a blockchain analytics firm, noted that while Bitcoin may still follow its traditional cycle patterns, signs of a late-cycle phase are emerging. Elevated selling pressure and profit-taking suggest that the market is nearing the end of its current cycle. Position trader Bob Loukas echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the idea of a cycle-free Bitcoin market is a myth—while cycles are inevitable, the nature of each cycle is shaped by evolving market conditions and participant behavior.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s next halving is expected in March 2028, with the block reward dropping from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Some analysts predict that this event could trigger another bull run, while others caution that macroeconomic conditions—such as global debt levels and liquidity trends—may play a more significant role in shaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory. For instance, a $33 trillion refinancing wall in 2026 could drain liquidity and pressure risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, regardless of its internal supply dynamics.

In summary, while Bitcoin halvings remain a notable event in the crypto calendar, their influence on market cycles is being increasingly overshadowed by macroeconomic forces, institutional adoption, and structural changes in the market. As the cryptocurrency moves toward maturity, its price behavior is becoming more aligned with traditional asset classes, suggesting a future where Bitcoin’s value is dictated by broader economic trends rather than strictly by algorithmic supply constraints.

Source: [1] Bitcoin market cycles not anchored around halvings: Analyst (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-market-cycles-not-anchored-halvings-analyst) [2] Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Set To Collide With TradFi's Debt Wall (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-tradfi-cycles-set-to-collide-in-2026-good-or-bad) [3] Bitcoin Halving 2028 - Get Ready for the Next ... (https://naga.com/eu/academy/bitcoin-halving-2028) [4] Analyst Predicts BTC Could Reach $170K at Cycle Peak (https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/bitcoin-bounces-analyst-predicts-btc-could-reach-170k-at-cycle-peak/) [5] This Cryptocurrency Has Doubled Since July, But It Might Not ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cryptocurrency-doubled-since-july-might-102500578.html)