Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Market Cycle Nears Peak as MVRV 365DMA Approaches 1.5 Threshold

Bitcoin’s market cycle may be approaching a peak by late August or early September, as the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) 365-day moving average (MVRV 365DMA) nears historical thresholds linked to major price tops. On-chain data reveals the indicator’s current level mirrors patterns observed in prior bull cycles, particularly the 2021 double-top formation, suggesting a potential turning point for the cryptocurrency. The MVRV 365DMA, which measures Bitcoin’s market value relative to the average cost basis of holders over the past year, historically signals overbought conditions when reaching levels above 1.5, often preceding significant corrections [1].

The U.S.-EU trade agreement, which reduces tariffs on European goods and includes infrastructure and energy investments, has bolstered risk-on sentiment, supporting Bitcoin’s price near $119,000. This macroeconomic backdrop, combined with anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, has reinforced bullish momentum. However, technical indicators highlight consolidation near the $120,000 psychological level, with Bollinger Bands tightening and price action holding above the 20-day moving average. A relative strength index (RSI) reading of approximately 61 suggests waning but not reversed momentum, leaving the door open for a breakout toward $125,000 or a pullback to $114,000 if key support levels fail [1].

Analysts caution that the MVRV 365DMA’s predictive power is context-dependent. While historical cycles, such as the 2021 bull run where the ratio peaked above 2.0 before a subsequent correction, provide useful reference points, external factors like monetary policy and geopolitical dynamics remain critical variables. The current environment differs in that robust on-chain activity and growing institutional adoption may moderate the severity of any downturn. Nevertheless, holders with substantial unrealized profits—particularly those who accumulated during the 2020–2021 bear market—could drive selling pressure if risk appetite wanes [1].

For traders, the signals underscore a need for balanced strategies. The potential peak aligns with the U.S. summer trading lull and precedes the 2026 Bitcoin halving, a historical catalyst for rebounds. Short-term volatility is likely, but long-term fundamentals, including ETF approvals and network upgrades, remain intact. Investors are advised to monitor macroeconomic developments, technical support/resistance levels, and the Fed’s policy trajectory as key determinants of Bitcoin’s next move.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin Market Cycle Could Near Peak by Late August as MVRV Indicator Approaches Key Level] [https://m.economictimes.com/crypto-news-today-live-28-jul-2025/liveblog/122939448.cms]