Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin LTHs Trigger Historic CDD Surge to 0.25 Amid $106K-$118K Range

Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) are initiating significant on-chain activity as the Cumulative Days Destroyed (CDD) ratio surges to a historic 0.25, a metric historically linked to market distribution phases during prior peaks in 2014 and 2019. This surge, observed within a $106,000–$118,000 price range, reflects heightened movement of dormant coins held for extended periods, signaling experienced investors may be capitalizing on current levels to secure profits after prolonged accumulation [1][2]. The CDD ratio—measuring monthly coin movement relative to annual activity—has spiked to levels unseen since critical inflection points in Bitcoin’s history, underscoring a potential shift in market dynamics [1]. Analysts caution that while this does not confirm an immediate bearish reversal, it highlights a pivotal phase in Bitcoin’s consolidation period.

Price action remains compressed between $115,724 and $122,077 for over 10 days, with bulls unable to breach the $120,000 resistance level. Technical indicators show Bitcoin trading near the 50-period moving average, which has acted as dynamic support since July, while the 200-period moving average lingers well below current prices, suggesting the broader trend remains bullish [1]. However, declining volume during this consolidation phase signals indecision among buyers, raising concerns about a potential correction if upward momentum fails to resume. A breakout above $122,000 could reignite bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $115,700 risks exposing Bitcoin to deeper retracement toward $109,800 [1].

Axel Adler, a top analyst, emphasizes that elevated CDD levels historically precede market tops but do not necessarily signal the end of a bullish phase. Instead, they indicate strategic reallocation by seasoned holders seeking to capitalize on favorable conditions [1]. This aligns with historical patterns observed in 2014 and 2019, where similar CDD spikes preceded major corrections or consolidation periods before resuming uptrends. The current distribution activity, while introducing short-term volatility, does not negate the asset’s long-term trajectory, which remains supported by strong treasury demand and sustained Bitcoin ETF inflows. These structural factors act as a buffer against excessive downward pressure, countering the potential impact of LTH selling [1].

The interplay between on-chain distribution and macroeconomic fundamentals will be critical in determining Bitcoin’s next move. While LTH activity influences short-term volatility, long-term trends are more closely tied to institutional adoption and treasury inflows. The coming days are pivotal, with technical levels and on-chain metrics serving as key indicators of whether the current consolidation will resolve into a renewed rally or a deeper correction. Investors are closely monitoring whether institutional flows can offset the impact of LTH distribution, as a failure to reclaim $120,000 could trigger further profit-taking, whereas sustained buying pressure may validate the resilience of the ongoing bullish phase [1].

Source: [1] [Bitcoin LTHs Start Distributing: CDD Ratio Hits Historic Levels] [https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-lths-start-distributing-cdd-ratio-hits-historic-levels/] [2] [Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sell as CDD Ratio Reaches 0.25] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-long-term-holders-sell-cdd-ratio-reaches-0-25-sopr-hits-record-highs-2507/].