Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin LTH/STH Ratio Drops 11% as Long-Term Holders Offload 52 000 BTC Suggesting Bullish Setup

Bitcoin’s on-chain activity has recently revealed a significant shift in market dynamics, with the Long-Term Holder (LTH) to Short-Term Holder (STH) supply ratio declining by 11% over the past 30 days, according to data from Glassnode [1]. This metric, which measures the distribution of Bitcoin between seasoned investors and newer market participants, indicates a clear rotation of supply from long-term holders to short-term traders. Such a pattern historically coincides with investor confidence in upward price potential, as LTHs offload portions of their holdings ahead of anticipated market momentum [1].

The decline in the LTH/STH ratio mirrors distribution trends observed before Bitcoin’s previous all-time highs. Similar reductions in this ratio were noted in prior bull cycles, suggesting that current market behavior could be a precursor to another major price surge [1]. Analysts note that this structural shift aligns with the cyclical buildup of demand, as short-term holders absorb the redistributed supply. If sustained, this could generate upward price pressure, particularly if buyer demand remains robust [1].

On-chain metrics further underscore the significance of this rotation. Over the same period, long-term holders reportedly reduced their holdings by 52,000 BTC, reflecting a pattern akin to the 2024 market cycle [4]. Meanwhile, the STH/LTH ratio—a gauge of speculative activity—has risen, indicating increased short-term capital inflows [6]. This dual movement suggests a maturing market phase where institutional and retail investors are recalibrating positions in anticipation of broader trends.

For investors, the implications are clear. The current supply dynamics signal a transition from accumulation to distribution, a phase often followed by sharp price appreciation. Historical data shows that such rotations typically precede major bull runs, with Bitcoin’s all-time highs frequently occurring after similar reductions in the LTH/STH ratio [1]. However, analysts caution that while the on-chain indicators are bullish, short-term volatility remains a risk. A breakdown below key support levels could trigger a correction, as seen in previous cycles [2].

The broader market context also highlights Bitcoin’s resilience amid capital rotation into altcoins. Despite Ethereum’s recent bullish momentum, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap—measuring the total value of all on-chain transactions—has continued to rise, indicating that its supply remains structurally strong [5]. This divergence suggests that the altcoin surge is not occurring at the expense of Bitcoin’s on-chain value.

Looking ahead, projections for Bitcoin’s price trajectory are cautiously optimistic. Analysts forecast potential moves toward $180,000–$200,000 by late 2025, contingent on the continuation of current capital rotation patterns and the absence of negative catalysts [7]. However, immediate price action remains mixed, with declining active addresses and transfer volumes offset by steady fee growth and Realized Cap expansion [6]. The market appears in a reassessment phase, with the RSI pulling back to 51.7 and the Perpetual CVD metric signaling reduced selling pressure [6].

As the market digests these signals, investors are closely monitoring whether recent dip-buying activity can sustain a rebound. On-chain indicators such as the STH/LTH ratio and hot capital share remain within normal ranges, suggesting that speculative positioning has not yet reached overheated levels [6]. For now, the data points to a structurally bullish setup, provided liquidity and demand continue to hold firm.

Sources:

[1] https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6889e73854b60d73c6013df5/

[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:cdb142259094b:0-bitcoin-long-term-holders-begin-distribution-mirroring-fall-2024-cycle/

[4] https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-lth-supply-drops-52-000-btc-mirroring-2024-distribution-phase-2507/

[5] https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-995736-20250730

[6] https://insights.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-31/

[7] https://medium.com/coinmonks/bitcoins-acceleration-phase-etf-inflows-miner-hoarding-and-the-supercycle-setup-15424f8f3b80