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Bitcoin is currently trading near a pivotal juncture following its recent surge to record highs, though signs indicate that momentum is beginning to wane. Despite briefly surpassing the $120,000 level,
has failed to maintain this level and the breakout above all-time highs remains unconfirmed. This has led some analysts to warn that the market may face heightened downside risks in the near term [1].However, on-chain data suggests a more optimistic outlook for long-term stability. The Long-Term Holder (LTH) cohort, defined as those holding Bitcoin for between six months and two years, has significantly increased its supply since April. During this period, when Bitcoin was trading at $83,000, LTH holdings grew from 3.551 million BTC to 5.191 million BTC, an increase of 1.64 million BTC [1]. This accumulation reflects strong confidence among seasoned investors, even amid short-term volatility and uncertainty.
Axel Adler, a leading analyst, notes that Bitcoin's latest attempt to test the all-time high at $118,000 displayed a notably different dynamic compared to past cycles. During this move, LTHs engaged in some profit-taking, with the seven-day average spending reaching 20,000 BTC. However, this activity was far below the typical distribution spikes seen in prior cycles, where spending often surged between 40,000 and 70,000 BTC [1]. The reduced selling pressure indicates that long-term holders remain committed to their positions, choosing to accumulate or maintain their holdings rather than aggressively liquidate.
Adler emphasizes that the current accumulation trend outweighs distribution, signaling a more robust and sustainable bullish phase [1]. This behavior is often seen during healthy bull markets, where selling pressure is absorbed without derailing the overall upward trend.
Despite this positive on-chain behavior, Bitcoin still needs to overcome a key technical hurdle. A decisive breakout above $125,000 would confirm the strength of the recent move and potentially open the door to further price appreciation. If bulls succeed in reclaiming this level, it could signal a strong continuation of the uptrend driven by institutional demand and continued long-term accumulation. Conversely, a failure to push above $125,000 in the near term might allow bears to test lower levels before a new upward move begins [1].
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has retreated to $117,300 after a sharp rejection near $123,200, just below the recent all-time high of $124,000. The current price is holding above the confluence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which remains a critical support zone [1]. A breakdown below $116,900 could expose further downside toward $115,000, but the upward trajectory of the moving averages still indicates an underlying bullish trend.
The repeated rejection near $123,000–$124,000 highlights the significance of this resistance level. A strong reclamation of this zone would be necessary to confirm upward momentum and extend the current uptrend toward higher levels. Until that occurs, the market remains in a consolidation phase, with traders closely monitoring whether support at the $117K region holds [1].
Source: [1] Bitcoin Data Shows Accumulation Prevails As LTH Selling Pressure Eases (https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-data-shows-accumulation-prevails-as-lth-selling-pressure-eases/)

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