Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders Quietly Redefine Market Power

Bitcoin long-term holders are currently engaging in significant profit-taking, signaling a pivotal shift in the cryptocurrency market. Recent on-chain metrics and analyst reports indicate that Bitcoin is transitioning into a late-bull phase, marked by increasing realized capital and subdued short-term trading activity. The Realized Cap of Bitcoin recently surpassed $1 trillion, a milestone underscoring the broader accumulation and long-term holding behavior among investors [1]. Despite this, the 90-day price return remains at just 5%, highlighting a period of consolidation rather than an aggressive bull trend [1].

A key indicator of this shift is the 7-day moving average of BTC Spent Volume, which has dropped to 545k Bitcoin per day. This is notably lower than peak distribution periods, which typically see daily volumes between 900k and 1 million coins [1]. Analyst Axel Adler notes that such a decline in volume is a neutral-bullish signal, suggesting that large profit takers—typically long-term holders—have reduced their selling pressure. This could indicate that the market is stabilizing and that sustained volume levels under 500k BTC/day could support an ongoing uptrend [1].

Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals structural challenges in Bitcoin’s current growth trajectory. Prominent analyst Willy Woo has highlighted how the market is being constrained by early whales—long-term holders who accumulated Bitcoin during the 2011 bull run at significantly lower prices [2]. These investors now hold large unrealized gains and are actively liquidating portions of their holdings. The resulting selling pressure requires substantial capital inflows—often exceeding $110,000 per BTC—to prevent price declines. This dynamic is slowing Bitcoin’s upward momentum, as the market must continuously absorb large-scale profit-taking without triggering downward corrections [2].

Recent whale activity has further underscored this trend. A major early holder who accumulated 100,784 BTC in 2016—worth over $11 billion as of late August—has been aggressively rotating into Ethereum [2]. This whale deposited $2.59 billion worth of BTC into Hyperliquid for sale and used the proceeds to purchase $2.22 billion in ETH, while also establishing a long position of $577 million. The speed and scale of this transaction suggest a strategic pivot from Bitcoin to Ethereum, driven by expectations of stronger returns in the latter market [2].

Market volatility has also intensified during weekends, as thinner liquidity and increased short-term profit-taking by traders create conditions for sharp price swings. CryptoQuant notes that weekends typically see a rise in BTC exchange reserves due to heightened sell pressure, while derivatives markets experience cascading liquidations from excessive long positioning. These factors contribute to what the firm terms a “liquidity trap,” where large players exploit weak market conditions to trigger stop-loss clusters and drive sudden price drops [2].

Despite these challenges, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory. The Index Market Phase currently sits in stage 4, indicating a late bull cycle with high unrealized profits but no euphoric buying frenzy [1]. Historical patterns suggest that volatility during August and September is common, and a temporary pullback toward $100k cannot be ruled out as the market adjusts. However, sustained bullish signals, such as low spent volume and a stable long-term holder base, point to continued upward potential in the longer term [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin's late bull stage: $1T cap, low profit-taking, and ... (https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoins-late-bull-stage-1t-cap-low-profit-taking-and-whats-ahead/)

[2] Why Is Bitcoin Crawling This Cycle? Analyst Reveals ... (https://cryptopotato.com/why-is-bitcoin-crawling-this-cycle-analyst-reveals-the-hidden-factors/)