Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Liveliness Rises on Fresh Capital, Suggesting Bull Cycle Gains Momentum

Bitcoin's "Liveliness" Indicator and Market Outlook

Bitcoin's "liveliness" indicator—a measure of on-chain transaction activity—has been rising despite recent price fluctuations, signaling continued underlying demand in the market, according to analysts. The indicator, which compares cumulative spending to holding behavior across cycles, is seen as a long-term proxy for on-chain momentum according to market analysis. Technical analyst TXMC noted that the metric's upward trend suggests the current bull market cycle may not be over, even as Bitcoin's price consolidates in a narrow range.

James Check, another analyst, highlighted that liveliness has remained range-bound since the 2017 bull run but has now broken out to new highs. This surge is attributed to a significant return of dormant coins, with transactions involving several to tens of billions of dollars—far exceeding the smaller scales seen in 2017 according to on-chain data. Check described the current cycle as potentially the largest capital rotation in Bitcoin history.

Analysts are also noting that this year's liveliness surge is occurring on a much larger scale compared to previous cycles. While 2017 marked the first widespread adoption parabola, 2025's cycle features a much higher magnitude of value movement. The increased volume of coin days destroyed—where long-held coins are transacted—has led some to suggest a "changing of the guard" in Bitcoin's ownership structure according to analysts.

What Analysts Are Watching

The rising liveliness metric has drawn attention as it typically correlates with bull market dynamics. As supply changes hands at higher price levels, the indicator climbs, reflecting fresh capital inflows. TXMC explained that the metric rises when more coins are transacting than being held, with the weighting based on the age of the coins involved according to market analysis. This suggests that the recent activity is driven by long-term holders actively transacting, a strong bullish sign.

Analysts have also pointed out that despite Bitcoin's recent consolidation around the $89,500 level, underlying on-chain activity remains robust. TXMC argued that liveliness continues to rise even as the price shows weakness, indicating a floor of demand not yet reflected in price action according to market analysis. This divergence suggests that the market may not be as weak as the price action implies.

Risks to the Outlook

While the liveliness trend is encouraging, some analysts remain cautious. Bitcoin's recent price movement has been relatively flat, with minor fluctuations between $86,000 and $92,000. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, stated that this range is essentially "noise" and that meaningful movement will require a test of key resistance levels according to market analysis. He added that a break above $92,000 could signal a new bull trend, but if not, the market might test lower levels in search of a stronger support base.

The market is also under pressure from the fact that a quarter of all Bitcoin in circulation is currently in unrealized losses. This means that a significant number of recent buyers would see a profit only if Bitcoin rises above $106,200 according to market analysis. Until then, the market could face selling pressure as traders adjust positions or cut losses.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, the rising liveliness indicator suggests that the bull market may still have legs, even if Bitcoin's price action is not yet reflecting that momentum. The fact that dormant coins are re-entering the market at this stage of the cycle is a sign of renewed participation. As TXMC noted, this type of activity has historically signaled the early stages of a bull run.

Moreover, the increased scale of transactions—measured in billions of dollars rather than the thousands—indicates that institutional and high-net-worth players are more heavily involved this time around. This shift could lead to more sustained price movement compared to previous cycles, where retail participation was the dominant force.

Given these factors, investors may want to monitor both price and on-chain metrics more closely. While Bitcoin's price has been range-bound, the underlying demand for spot Bitcoin remains strong. As analysts continue to watch the market's next move, the combination of rising liveliness and institutional participation could set the stage for a significant rally in the coming months.