Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Last Line of Defense: Can $105K Hold the Market's Breath?

BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, has reiterated his cautious stance on Bitcoin amid a recent market pullback, highlighting concerns about speculative trends and structural risks in the crypto market. His comments come as Bitcoin retreated from its recent high of $117,300, falling below $110,600 on Monday following a sharp rebound from the Jackson Hole symposium. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that all BTC wallet cohorts have shifted into a distribution phase, with mid-size holders selling into strength and large wallets maintaining consistent pressure on price stability [1].

Fink’s perspective aligns with broader market observations, where analysts like Boris Vest have noted diverging behaviors among Bitcoin holders. Smaller wallet holders (0–1 BTC) have shown accumulation since the price peak, while larger wallets (10–100 BTC) flipped to net sellers after crossing $118,000. This synchronized movement across wallet sizes indicates broad sell-side pressure, raising concerns about Bitcoin’s ability to hold key support levels [1]. The 100–1,000 BTC group remains split between accumulation and distribution around $105,000, which has become a critical inflection point [1]. If Bitcoin loses this level, the lack of dense cost support between $110,000 and $90,000 could accelerate further downside momentum.

Historical seasonal patterns also suggest a potential retreat toward the $105,000–$100,000 range. August to September is traditionally a weak period for Bitcoin, with average declines of 21.7% since 2017, including sharp drops of –39.8% in 2017 and –23% in 2021. These trends coincide with the current “ghost month” from August 23 to September 21, a period historically associated with reduced risk appetite and increased profit-taking [1]. Analyst Roman Trading has also flagged structural risks in Bitcoin’s rally, noting that the BTC/EUR pair has not reached a new all-time high since last year, suggesting the recent upside may be driven more by a weakening U.S. dollar than by fundamental demand [1].

The growing use of Bitcoin in emerging and developing economies adds another layer to the discussion. Studies have shown that local factors, such as currency depreciation, play a significant role in increasing Bitcoin trading volumes in these markets. In economies experiencing high inflation or exchange rate instability, Bitcoin appears to serve as a hedge and alternative store of value. The research also highlights how global factors, including crypto market momentum and financial volatility, contribute to a global crypto cycle, where Bitcoin trading across currencies moves in tandem with price fluctuations [4]. This dual dynamic—global speculation and local utility—has raised concerns about financial stability, particularly in markets with limited consumer protection and opaque trading environments.

BlackRock’s continued scrutiny of Bitcoin reflects broader institutional caution, as macroeconomic uncertainties persist and speculative demand remains a dominant driver of price action. While the firm acknowledges Bitcoin’s potential as a speculative asset, it has not yet signaled a full endorsement of its inclusion in mainstream investment portfolios. Institutional adoption remains contingent on regulatory clarity and market maturation. Meanwhile, retail investors continue to explore diverse strategies, from leveraging debt to mine Bitcoin, although such tactics carry significant risks [3]. As the market navigates these complexities, the interplay between global macroeconomic factors and local currency dynamics will likely shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin holders 'distribute' as $105K becomes BTC's last stronghold (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-holders-distribute-as-dollar105k-becomes-btc-s-last-stronghold)

[2] Ethereum Hits Record, Cryptos Reverse On Bitcoin Flash (https://www.investors.com/news/ethereum-price-record-high-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fed-speech/)

[3] I Asked Grok How To Get Rich Off Bitcoin — Here's What It Said (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/i-asked-grok-how-get-rich-bitcoin-heres-what-it-said)

[4] Global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading vis-à-vis fiat (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S026156****001408)

[5] BITCOIN vs. US DOLLAR INDEX DXY | UGC Charts (https://en.macromicro.me/charts/84646/BITCOIN-vs-US-DOLLAR-INDEX-DXY)