Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin lags below $118K as Fed decision looms and crypto market braces for policy shift

Bitcoin (BTC) remains below the $118,000 level as the cryptocurrency market adopts a cautious stance in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined by over 5% to $3.92 trillion, with both Bitcoin and altcoins experiencing broad-based losses [1]. Despite the bearish sentiment, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has edged up to 74, a slight improvement driven in part by diplomatic talks between the United States and China in Stockholm [1].

The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision has led to risk-off positioning across the market. Although traders widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged, recent strong economic data—including a 104,000 job addition in July and a 3% second-quarter GDP expansion—has complicated the outlook [1]. These figures suggest a stronger-than-anticipated recovery, increasing the likelihood of a hawkish tone from the central bank in its post-meeting commentary [1].

The geopolitical landscape also contributes to the cautious mood. U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian goods effective August 1 has intensified fears of a broader trade war, with additional tariff threats looming over Brazil, South Korea, and South Africa [1]. Meanwhile, the anticipated release of a White House report on U.S. crypto policy has further heightened uncertainty. While speculation abounds about a potential strategic Bitcoin reserve, no concrete policy measures have yet been announced [1].

Market activity reflects this cautious approach. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has dropped sharply, with TRDR reporting a decline to $49.58 billion from $50.58 billion at the U.S. market open [1]. Over $111.97 million in long positions have been liquidated across the crypto market in the past 12 hours, according to Coinglass [1]. Analysts like TedPillows have noted signs of panic selling ahead of the FOMC decision, suggesting that investors may later regret selling at lower prices [1].

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend on the tone of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments. Traders are closely watching whether he signals any shift toward rate cuts or maintains a data-dependent approach focused on inflation control [1]. On the technical front, Bitcoin faces a key resistance zone around $120,000. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a move toward new all-time highs, according to multiple analysts [1]. Glassnode’s latest report identifies $141,000 as the next major upside target, while a secondary resistance at $125,000 could also be a key level to watch [1].

On the downside, immediate support lies between $114,000 and $116,000. Some analysts predict a brief drop below this range to fill a fair value gap near $112,000 before a potential rebound. A deeper correction could test the STH cost basis at $105,400 or the yearly open near $93,000 [1]. Pseudonymous crypto analyst Henry has suggested that the recent volatility is part of a typical liquidation phase that often precedes a breakout rally, describing the price action as a textbook bullish pennant formation [1].

While Bitcoin remains in a tight range, altcoins have also retreated. The altcoin market cap has seen a mixed performance, with the top gainers including FORM (up 16%), XDC Network (up 4.6%), and Story (up 4.6%) [1]. In its Q3 2025 Investment Outlook, digital-asset bank Sygnum noted that the long-anticipated altseason may be beginning, citing improved regulatory clarity, increased liquidity, and rising on-chain activity as key drivers [1]. However, the bank also warned that unchecked speculation could lead to another memecoin bubble, potentially ending in a sharp correction.

Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $3,788, up 1% in the past day, while other large-cap altcoins show a mixed performance. XRP (XRP) has gained 1.4%, while Solana, Dogecoin, Tron, and Cardano have all recorded losses between 1-3% [1]. Bitcoin’s dominance has declined by 4% since June, with Ethereum gaining 3.2% in the same period [1].

As the market awaits the outcome of the FOMC meeting and Trump’s policy announcements, Bitcoin remains trapped in a narrow range. With the Fed decision and Powell’s remarks expected later in the day, traders are holding back until a clearer direction emerges [1].

Source: [1] BTC below $118K as market awaits Fed decision, Four emerges as top gainer (https://invezz.com/news/2025/07/30/btc-below-118k-as-market-awaits-fed-decision-four-emerges-as-top-gainer/)