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The
Premium Index has plunged to its widest negative level since the first quarter of 2025, signaling waning U.S. demand and growing institutional caution in the cryptocurrency market. As of November 19, the index , according to Coinglass data, reflecting the price gap between Coinbase-a dominant U.S. exchange-and the global market average. A negative premium indicates that Bitcoin trades at a discount on Coinbase compared to offshore platforms, often linked to selling pressure and reduced risk appetite among U.S. investors.The persistent negative reading since October 31 highlights a shift in liquidity dynamics, with U.S. capital retreating from onshore crypto positions. Analysts attribute this to institutional profit-taking after months of aggressive accumulation, rather than a broad market collapse. "This phase mirrors a previous stress zone in February, when the premium hit nearly -$138, driven by U.S. entities trimming exposure," noted a market observer.
, have seen rising spot flows and stablecoin inflows, suggesting a geographic reallocation of liquidity rather than a structural decline in Bitcoin demand.The U.S. market's weakening stance is further underscored by record outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). BlackRock's
(IBIT) alone recorded $2.47 billion in redemptions in November, accounting for 63% of total U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows. This exodus accelerated as Bitcoin prices fell to seven-month lows near $83,461, pushing ETF investors into the red. Meanwhile, and Singapore-based trading desks, have expanded their BTC reserves, signaling a growing role in price formation.The negative premium and ETF outflows align with broader macroeconomic pressures. The Federal Reserve's fading rate-cut expectations and heightened risk-off sentiment have exacerbated capital rotations out of risk assets.
from October's peak, while leveraged positions totaling $2 billion were liquidated in the past 24 hours, per CoinGlass data. Despite these challenges, . "Historically, dips below the realized price often coincide with attractive entry points for long-term investors," said a strategist at LVRG Research.The market's near-term trajectory remains uncertain. While a stabilization in ETF flows was briefly observed, with $75.4 million in net inflows on November 19, institutional caution persists. If Bitcoin falls below key technical levels such as $90,000, further outflows could accelerate, according to experts. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this correction marks a temporary reset or the onset of a prolonged bearish phase.
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