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Bitcoin’s recent correction to a 11-day low of $114,755 has reignited debates among investors and analysts about whether the pullback marks the end of a bull cycle or a temporary bear trap. Four key metrics—options skew, ETF flows, top trader positioning, and stablecoin demand—suggest the correction is limited and that
may soon rebound toward the $120,000 level. The Bitcoin options skew, which measures fear of downside risk, hit a four-month high, signaling that panic is contained and historical patterns suggest such skews often precede rebounds. For instance, a similar skew event in early August was followed by a $9,657 rally within six days.Spot Bitcoin ETFs also provide optimism. Despite a seven-day inflow streak ending on Friday, the outflows remain within normal parameters for the $152 billion ETF market, with liquidity strong enough to absorb short-term redemptions. Recent outflows translated into only a 6% correction to $112,000, suggesting the ETFs’ resilience remains intact. Top traders on platforms like OKX and Binance have not significantly reduced their long positions, with the long-to-short ratio stabilizing after initial declines. This indicates institutional players are either waiting for a retest of support levels or maintaining their bullish outlook.
Stablecoin demand in China also offers insight into market sentiment. Tether (USDT) is currently trading at a 0.8% discount in China, a mild indicator of risk aversion, but the rate has remained steady since late last week, signaling that fear is not intensifying. This contrasts with larger discounts seen during more volatile periods, which often reflect stronger flight-to-safety behavior.
Meanwhile, institutional buying remains robust. Michael Saylor’s
firm recently purchased an additional 155 Bitcoin, pushing its total holdings to 628,946 coins, valued at over $74 billion. This activity, concentrated in a short period since the election of Trump in November 2024, reflects a broader trend of institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Analysts point to historical bull cycles, noting that similar mid-cycle corrections have historically led to sharp rebounds, with the potential for Bitcoin to reach $160,000 by year-end if current patterns hold.However, the path is not without challenges. The recent volatility has also raised questions about market manipulation and liquidity concerns. Some traders have highlighted coordinated actions that led to over $1 billion in liquidations within 24 hours, while declining trading volumes have raised doubts about the sustainability of the recent peak. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming Jackson Hole symposium adds another layer of uncertainty, as policy decisions could influence investor sentiment in the coming weeks.
Despite the correction, the broader institutional adoption of Bitcoin continues to gain momentum. Corporate treasuries are accumulating Bitcoin at an accelerating pace, with many viewing the asset as a strategic reserve. These trends are compounded by growing interest in Bitcoin-based infrastructure projects, such as Bitcoin Hyper, a Layer 2 solution that enhances scalability and smart contract capabilities while leveraging Bitcoin’s security. As Bitcoin consolidates, these developments suggest the asset is not reaching a cycle top but rather preparing for the next phase of its bull run.
Source: [1] Was the Bitcoin price bottom $114.7K?: Data suggests it's ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/was-the-bitcoin-price-bottom-dollar114-7k-data-suggests-it-s-time-for-a-reversal) [2] Bitcoin News: BTC Correction or Setup for $160K? (https://icobench.com/news/bitcoin-news-institutional-momentum-builds-as-btc-eyes-160k/) [3] Bitcoin Faces a Tense Week Amid Correction and Mixed ... (https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-faces-a-tense-week-amid-correction-and-mixed-signals/) [4] US Treasury Considers Digital ID Requirements for DeFi ... (https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/us-treasury-considers-digital-id-requirements-for-defi-platforms-to-combat-financial-crime) [5] Request for Comment on Innovative Methods To Detect ... (https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/08/18/2025-15697/request-for-comment-on-innovative-methods-to-detect-illicit-activity-involving-digital-assets) [6] US Treasury Considers Digital ID Verification for DeFi to ... (https://coincentral.com/us-treasury-considers-digital-id-verification-for-defi-to-combat-illicit-finance/)

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