Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Institutional Adoption Seen Staving Off Bear Market Despite 10% Price Drop

Bitcoin CEO and Trump crypto policy adviser David Bailey has made a bold prediction, stating that there will be no Bitcoin bear market for several years due to increasing institutional adoption, even as the cryptocurrency approaches its August low of $112,000 [1]. Bailey emphasized that major institutions—sovereigns, banks, insurers, corporates, and pension funds—are beginning to accumulate Bitcoin in significant volumes, suggesting the market has only scratched the surface of potential demand [1]. He argued that the current institutional interest marks a structural shift, distinguishing it from earlier cycles driven by retail speculation [1].

Despite Bailey’s optimism, Bitcoin has experienced a 10% decline from its August 13 all-time high of $124,000, raising concerns among analysts about the broader market’s health [1]. Critics question why Bitcoin would weaken during a strong equity market if institutional demand is truly robust [1]. Additionally, some Bitcoin treasury companies now trade below net asset value, indicating rising pressure as market conditions tighten [1].

Bailey attributed the recent price weakness to manipulation in futures and options markets rather than a waning of fundamental demand [1]. He highlighted that corporate Bitcoin holdings have surged to over $215 billion, with nearly 300 entities participating and public companies controlling 71.4% of institutional reserves [1]. However, research from Sentora warns that many corporate Bitcoin strategies represent high-risk “negative-carry trades,” where companies borrow fiat to buy non-yielding assets, creating vulnerabilities during downturns [1].

Mining firms, in particular, face significant exposure, with companies like Marathon Digital holding Bitcoin exposure accounting for 50–80% of their total assets, exposing them to liquidation risks during market declines [1]. Meanwhile, investment firm VanEck has maintained its $180,000 year-end price target for Bitcoin despite volatility, citing strong institutional demand and rising CME basis rates as key indicators of bullish momentum [1].

Other opinion leaders, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have also expressed bullish views, with Armstrong projecting Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, driven by regulatory clarity and institutional demand [1]. However, not all are convinced. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warned that such extreme price predictions would likely stem from a U.S. economic collapse rather than genuine crypto success, preferring lower prices in a stable economy over those tied to currency crises [1].

Glassnode’s analysis suggests that traditional Bitcoin cycles remain intact despite growing institutional interest, with data showing that the current cycle has maintained supply above profitable levels for 273 days, the second-longest on record [1]. This data contrasts with Bailey’s “no-bear-market” thesis, adding to the growing debate about whether institutional adoption is reshaping Bitcoin’s traditional cycle or merely delaying it [1].

At the same time, altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in recent months, with Ethereum reaching a historic all-time high of around $5,000 and BNB hitting new peaks near $900 [1]. The shift in capital has seen some early Bitcoin whales moving assets into leveraged Ethereum positions, highlighting the evolving dynamics within the crypto market [1].

Source: [1] Trump Adviser Bailey Sees No Bitcoin Bear Market for Years Even as Price Hits August Bottom (https://cryptonews.com/news/trump-adviser-bailey-sees-no-bitcoin-bear-market-for-years-even-as-price-hits-august-bottom/)