Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Inches Toward $93K As Fed Easing Hopes Weigh On Volatility

Bitcoin's Price Trajectory and Market Outlook

Bitcoin's price trajectory has taken a volatile turn as it enters the final stretch before the Federal Reserve's December 2025 policy decision. The cryptocurrency has traded near $92,640, inching closer to the $93,000–$95,000 resistance level, a key psychological threshold for institutional traders. Market dynamics have been shaped by the anticipation of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the FOMC, now priced in at 96% by prediction markets. The outcome could influence Bitcoin's performance in the weeks ahead, especially given the asset's historical reaction to Fed easing according to analysis.

Bitcoin's year-to-date volatility has been exacerbated by sharp intraday swings, including a recent 30% drop from October. Traders and analysts are closely watching whether the Fed's decision can stabilize the market amid thin liquidity and a fragile risk-on environment. The cryptocurrency's dominance in the broader crypto market has edged higher, while the total market cap dipped below $3.1 trillion, signaling a shift in capital flows.

The upcoming FOMC decision could trigger a major inflection point for Bitcoin, either unlocking a rally or reinforcing bearish sentiment. Analysts highlight that Bitcoin historically gains 30–60 days after a Fed pivot toward easing. A dovish outcome might encourage capital rotation into risk assets, particularly crypto, as investors seek yield in an environment of declining fixed-income returns.

How Markets Reacted

Bitcoin's recent price action has reflected heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic signals and speculative positioning. The RSI on the 4-hour chart sits near 56, indicating neutral but weakening momentum, while the stochastic RSI suggests signs of exhaustion. Immediate support is at $88,000, with deeper levels at $76,000 potentially acting as a mid-cycle accumulation base.

The broader market environment has added to Bitcoin's turbulence. The U.S. labor market slowdown, as indicated by the ADP and JOLTS reports, has fueled uncertainty about the Fed's ability to deliver meaningful easing without triggering inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Japan's Bank of Japan is set to normalize its ultra-low interest rates, adding another layer of complexity to global liquidity conditions.

Speculative positioning in the yen has also shifted. Investors are net long the yen, a stark contrast to mid-2024 when carry-trade unwinds caused sharp sell-offs in equities and crypto. However, the BOJ's rate hike is largely priced in, with Japanese government bond yields already reflecting market expectations. This suggests a more gradual adjustment rather than a shock-driven unwind.

What Analysts Are Watching

Traders are closely monitoring the Fed's forward guidance, particularly whether Chair Jerome Powell signals sustained accommodation into early 2026. A dovish pivot could reinforce Bitcoin's multi-year bullish thesis, with institutions like Bank of America and Morgan Stanley aligning their forecasts with rate-cut expectations.

On the bearish side, the failure to break above $93,000 multiple times has raised concerns about Bitcoin's ability to sustain a rally in the near term. A decisive breakdown below $88,000 could trigger a cascade of liquidations, as seen recently when the price dropped from $94,000 to $88,000 within hours, wiping out $500 million in leveraged positions.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein, among others, remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory but have adjusted their 2025 price targets downward due to waning corporate accumulation and declining ETF inflows. Standard Chartered now forecasts Bitcoin at $100,000 by year-end, down from $200,000 earlier in the year, but still sees a potential $500,000 target by 2030.

Risks to the Outlook

The primary risk to Bitcoin's current trajectory is the possibility of a hawkish Fed response that delays or cancels further rate cuts. A wait-and-see approach could undermine the asset's appeal as a risk-on play, particularly if U.S. 10-year Treasury yields continue to rise. Higher yields increase the discount rate applied to future cash flows, which could pressure Bitcoin's valuation over the medium term.

Meanwhile, Japan's normalization could have a broader impact by tightening global liquidity. If Japanese yields remain elevated, they could anchor higher global borrowing costs, indirectly weighing on risk assets, including Bitcoin. This dynamic could unfold gradually over months rather than as a sudden shock, making it harder for investors to hedge.

For now, the market is in a holding pattern, with traders awaiting the FOMC decision on Wednesday. The outcome will determine whether Bitcoin can break free from its consolidation range or face a deeper correction.