Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin IBCI Enters Distribution Zone at 80% as Bearish RSI and CME Gap Trigger Short-Term Risks

Bitcoin’s market sentiment has turned cautious as the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI) entered the “distribution zone” for the third time during the current bull cycle. The IBCI, which tracks Bitcoin’s market dynamics, currently stands at approximately 80%, reaching the lower boundary of this zone—a range historically associated with market euphoria and potential price tops. While this marks the first time in five months the index has entered this territory, analysts emphasize it does not signal an imminent major correction. Instead, it serves as a warning for investors to remain vigilant, particularly as technical indicators such as a bearish RSI divergence and an open CME Bitcoin futures gap amplify short-term volatility risks [1].

The distribution zone entry is not a standalone bearish signal. Metrics like the Puell Multiple and Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) remain below critical thresholds, indicating retail speculation and miner profit-taking have not yet reached peak levels. This suggests that while Bitcoin faces near-term vulnerability, the broader bull trend remains intact [2]. Analysts note that the IBCI’s current reading—well below the upper bounds of the distribution zone—historically signals intermediate tops rather than cycle-ending declines. For context, previous peaks in this zone reached higher levels, underscoring that the current situation is less extreme [3].

Technical risks are further highlighted by a bearish RSI divergence, where Bitcoin’s price forms higher highs while the RSI fails to confirm these peaks—a pattern often linked to corrections. Additionally, a CME Bitcoin futures gap between $114,380 and $115,635 has created a “price magnet,” increasing the likelihood of Bitcoin testing support near $114,000–$115,000 in the coming weeks. This gap, which historically closed in seven of nine cases in 2025, amplifies near-term uncertainty [4].

For traders, the confluence of these signals presents a strategic juncture. The potential filling of the CME gap could trigger increased volatility and trading volume, offering opportunities for position adjustments. However, the absence of peak retail and miner activity suggests any pullback is likely to be intermediate rather than a cycle-ending decline. Investors are advised to monitor RSI divergence and IBCI levels closely, using these indicators to assess the probability of further corrections while maintaining exposure to the long-term bullish case [5].

The market’s dynamics highlight the importance of balancing technical and behavioral indicators. While the distribution zone and RSI divergence warrant caution, they do not negate the underlying strength of Bitcoin’s current cycle. Traders should prepare for a volatile near-term environment, prioritizing risk management while seeking entry points as the market navigates critical levels. The interplay of these signals underscores a complex landscape where short-term caution coexists with long-term optimism [6].

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin May Face Short-Term Dip Amid Bearish Divergence and CME Gap Below $115,000] [https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-may-face-short-term-dip-amid-bearish-divergence-and-cme-gap-below-115000/]

[2] [Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Faces Distribution Zone Warning] [https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/07/25/daily-crypto-signals-bitcoin-faces-distribution-zone-warning-xrp-outpaces-market-amid-institutional-eth-rotation/]

[3] [Bitcoin Market Shows Caution as IBCI Enters Distribution Zone] [https://coinpedia.org/crypto-live-news/bitcoin-market-shows-caution-as-ibci-enters-distribution-zone/]

[4] [Bitcoin May Face Short-Term Dip Amid Bearish Divergence and CME Gap Below $115,000] [https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-may-face-short-term-dip-amid-bearish-divergence-and-cme-gap-below-115000/]

[5] [Market Top or Just a Pause? Analysts Weigh in on Bitcoin's "Quiet Zone"] [https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:6a6f16a78094b:0-market-top-or-just-a-pause-analysts-weigh-in-on-bitcoin-s-quiet-zone/]

[6] [Crypto Today: Bitcoin Declines Amid De-Risking Sentiment] [https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-987796-20250725]