Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Hovers Near $92.6K as Fed Rate Decision Looms

The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision on December 10, 2025, has placed Bitcoin at a critical juncture. With the cryptocurrency trading near $92,640, market participants are closely watching for signals that could either propel Bitcoin toward $100,000 or send it into a deeper correction. Futures markets and prediction platforms price in an 87-93% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would bring the federal funds rate to 3.5–3.75%.

The decision comes amid a fragile market environment. Bitcoin has seen sharp intraday swings recently, including a drop from $94,000 to $88,000 within hours, triggering nearly $500 million in forced liquidations. Institutional and retail investors remain cautious, with the Fear and Greed Index hovering near 23, indicating extreme pessimism.

Bitcoin's price action in the lead-up to the Fed decision reflects the tug-of-war between optimism about rate cuts and concerns over macroeconomic headwinds. While liquidity conditions have improved slightly and global M2 money supply trends support a potential December recovery, the cryptocurrency remains sensitive to developments in labor markets and inflation data. The ADP employment report and JOLTS figures, along with Powell's post-meeting commentary, could tip the balance.

The Three Scenarios for Bitcoin's Near-Term Outlook

Market analysts have identified three key outcomes following the Fed's decision.

The most likely scenario is a quarter-point rate cut with no major surprises, which would likely result in a modest rebound for Bitcoin, potentially pushing it toward $95,000 or even the $100,000 psychological level. However, this scenario would fall short of a sustained breakout without additional liquidity expansion.

A more bullish outcome would occur if the Fed signals an aggressive dovish stance, hinting at more than three rate cuts in 2026 or a faster reduction in quantitative tightening. Such a move could catalyze a Santa rally for Bitcoin, with historical analogs suggesting that a 42% price surge is not out of the question within a six-week window after a policy shift.

Conversely, a hawkish pivot could trigger panic selling. With $787 billion in perpetual swap contracts and exchanges offering as much as 200x leverage, a surprise tightening signal could result in rapid liquidations and a sharp drop in Bitcoin prices, potentially testing support levels near $70,000 or $80,000.

Technical and Market Conditions

Technically, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase between $85,000 support and $95,000–$100,000 resistance. The current price action is testing critical pivot points that could determine the near-term direction. Analysts note that reclaiming and holding above $95,000 could unlock further upside, while a breakdown below $88,000 risks a deeper correction into the $85,000 area.

Market liquidity remains a concern. The derivatives market, with its high leverage and concentrated positions, could exacerbate volatility if the Fed delivers unexpected news. Additionally, Bitcoin ETF outflows have created downward pressure, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone experiencing a $112.96 million withdrawal.

Risks to the Outlook

The broader macroeconomic environment adds complexity. Services inflation, while declining, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, particularly in shelter costs. This complicates the Fed's ability to pivot aggressively toward easing. Additionally, thin trading volumes during December, a period typically marked by reduced activity, could amplify swings in Bitcoin's price.

Investor sentiment also poses a risk. Despite the potential for a rate cut, a lack of confidence in institutional and retail markets remains evident. The CBOE's VIX, often called the fear index, and the crypto Fear and Greed Index remain in bearish territory, signaling caution rather than optimism.

What This Means for Investors

For Bitcoin investors, the coming week is pivotal. Those with long positions are watching for confirmation that the Fed will provide the liquidity needed to fuel a larger trend continuation. Short sellers, meanwhile, are positioning for a potential breakdown if the central bank signals any hesitation.

The December 10 decision will not only shape Bitcoin's immediate trajectory but also set the tone for early 2026. If the Fed begins normalizing policy, Bitcoin could see modest gains. But if it signals a path toward aggressive easing, the cryptocurrency might finally reclaim its six-figure price level. Investors are advised to remain cautious but alert, given the volatility and the potential for either a rally or a sharp correction.