Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Hovers Below $116K as Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise to 75%

Bitcoin's price action on August 1, 2025, highlighted a tug-of-war between cautious optimism and lingering bearish sentiment as the cryptocurrency struggled to break above the $116,000 level. Despite a significant drop in U.S. nonfarm payrolls to 73,000—far below the 100,000 estimate—boosting expectations for an earlier-than-expected Federal Reserve rate cut, Bitcoin failed to secure a decisive rebound[1].

The U.S. jobs data, released ahead of the Wall Street open, indicated a softening labor market, with The Kobeissi Letter noting that the data suggested either a looming recession or severe flaws in reporting. The resource pointed to downward revisions of 258,000 jobs across May and June, warning that the unemployment rate is on an upward trajectory[1].

The news immediately fed into the crypto market, with market participants shifting their focus to the possibility of a September rate cut by the Fed, as shown by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool[1]. Despite these developments, Bitcoin’s price remained subdued, fluctuating just below the $116,000 threshold.

Order-book data revealed a concentration of short liquidation blocks near the $120,000 level, suggesting a potential liquidity trap that could drive prices higher if triggered[1]. Crypto investor Ted Pillows emphasized the importance of this level, noting that a sustained move toward it could result in a short squeeze.

Meanwhile, exchange volume data from Bitfinex showed early signs of “dip-buying,” with traders accumulating Bitcoin at sub-$115,000 levels. TheKingfisher, a popular crypto analytics account, highlighted this activity alongside rising volume on platforms like Bitmex and Bybit[1].

Comparative price analysis from CrypNuevo also drew attention, comparing the current BTC/USDT price action to the beginning of the year. These comparisons offered further insight into potential support and resistance levels in the near term.

While the market remains split on the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price, the convergence of macroeconomic signals and on-chain data suggests that the path forward is anything but straightforward. With Fed policy remaining the central variable and order-book liquidity poised to play a decisive role, investors are watching closely for any sign of a breakout.

Sources:

[1] Bitcoin rejects at $116K despite US jobs win as Fed rate cut bets pass 75% — https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688cce329a67cb42b5279472/