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Bitcoin remains trapped in a narrow consolidation phase, hovering between $114K and $123K as traders await clarity from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC decision. Market activity is subdued, with low volatility reflecting indecision among participants ahead of a key macroeconomic event [1]. The $114K level, aligned with the lower boundary of a multi-month ascending channel, is seen as a critical support. A break below this level could trigger a deeper correction toward $111K, while a retest of $123K is expected if the support holds [1].
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is consolidating within a bullish continuation flag pattern, a formation often seen during temporary corrections within an uptrend [1]. The focus is now on the FOMC meeting, with increased political tension and Trump’s calls for aggressive rate cuts adding uncertainty. A surprise rate cut from the Fed could act as a major catalyst, potentially pushing Bitcoin into a sharp upward breakout and setting the stage for a new all-time high [1].
On-chain data suggests a shift from speculative fervor to a more balanced market environment. Earlier rallies toward the $70K–$90K range were accompanied by high futures volume and speculative activity, as seen through dense red clusters on the volume bubble map. These phases were followed by corrections or consolidations [1]. In contrast, the current market behavior indicates a cooling-off period, with grey and green bubbles dominating the volume map. This suggests reduced leverage and a shift toward organic buying, which is typically a positive sign for long-term price stability [1].
The normalization of futures market activity, despite Bitcoin’s proximity to $123K, reinforces the idea that the current price increase is being driven more by genuine demand rather than speculative over-leveraging. If the trend of lower speculative pressure continues, the conditions may be set for a renewed upward move, potentially pushing the price beyond its current all-time high [1].
Until the FOMC decision provides more direction, trading activity is expected to remain subdued, with market participants waiting for confirmation from central bank policy before committing to new positions [1].
Source: [1] Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Consolidation Persists, Here’s What Could Trigger a Breakout (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688a2432759c0a7d0966bb10/)

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