Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Holds Above Key Support as Analysts Debate Bullish ETF Momentum vs. Geopolitical Risks

Bitcoin sentiment has reached a multi-year low as analysts caution that demand for the cryptocurrency is showing signs of waning, despite record inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). As of October 12, 2025, Bitcoin traded near $111,000–$112,000, having retreated from its early-October peak of $126,000 after a sharp 10% sell-off on October 10–11 triggered by a U.S.–China trade shock and liquidations of $19–20 billion in leveraged crypto positions, according to Bitcoin price predictions. While ETF inflows hit a record $5.95 billion in the week ending October 4, including $5 billion in U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, the recent volatility has raised concerns about the sustainability of the bull run, Coindesk reported.

Technical indicators reflect a mixed picture. Bitcoin remains above its 200-day moving average (~$110,000), a key support level, but momentum metrics like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and stochastic models have edged into overbought territory, signaling potential for a correction, according to Bitcoin technical analysis. On-chain data shows that 94.5% of Bitcoin's supply is in profit (last moved above current price), but a high concentration of supply—30% of all Bitcoin—was last traded within ±15% of current prices, suggesting heightened volatility if sentiment shifts, according to an options expiry analysis. Analysts warn that a breakdown below $108,000 could expose deeper support zones near $98,000, while a sustained move above $120,000 might pave the way for a retest of all-time highs, BTCC noted https://www.btcc.com/en-US/square/N4k4m0t0/1054852.

Macroeconomic factors remain pivotal. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish pivot—cutting rates by 0.25% in September 2025 and signaling further reductions—has historically supported Bitcoin's performance as an inflation hedge. However, uncertainty persists. A partial U.S. government shutdown in October 2025 delayed regulatory approvals for new ETFs, casting doubt on the timeline for expanded institutional access to altcoins like Solana and XRP, Invezz reported https://invezz.com/news/2025/10/11/bitcoin-price-struggles-to-hold-120k-zec-tao-lead-altcoins-with-double-digit-gains/. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks, including escalating U.S.–China trade tensions and the potential for a recessionary selloff, could pressure Bitcoin further. Citigroup has modeled a bearish scenario where prices could dip to $83,000 by late 2025 if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, according to Coinpedia https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-2025-what-next-for-btc-price/.

Institutional adoption continues to grow, with U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries now controlling 12.2% of all Bitcoin supply. This includes 1.3 million BTC held by ETFs (6.6% of total supply) and 1.1 million BTC in public company treasuries (5.6% of supply), according to BTCC. However, the recent correction has highlighted vulnerabilities. Over $600 million in leveraged positions were liquidated during the October 10–11 sell-off, and the Altcoin Season Index, which measures altcoin performance relative to Bitcoin, fell from 63 to 50, indicating a return of risk-off sentiment, the Market Periodical reported.

Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's trajectory. Bullish forecasts, including Standard Chartered's $300,000 target by 2026 and Michael Saylor's $200,000–$250,000 projection, hinge on continued ETF inflows, Fed easing, and institutional demand, according to the ts2 report. Conversely, bearish scenarios warn of a 2026 bear market if inflation proves "sticky" or geopolitical tensions worsen. Elliott Wave analyst John Glover predicts a peak of $135,000–$140,000 by late 2025 followed by a decline into the $100,000 range, Coinpedia also noted.

Regulatory developments have introduced clarity but also uncertainty. The U.S. passed the GENIUS Act in July 2025 to regulate stablecoins, while the SEC's new generic listing rules could accelerate approvals for altcoin ETFs, the Market Periodical observed. However, the ongoing government shutdown has stalled processes, creating friction for market participants.

Bitcoin's path forward depends on balancing these forces. If institutional demand and Fed policy remain supportive, the asset could resume its upward trend. But a shift in macroeconomic conditions or regulatory headwinds could trigger a deeper correction. As one analyst noted, "All bets are off if U.S.–China tensions continue to worsen," BTCC said.