Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Holds Key Support at $117,300 as Fed Cut Odds Hit 92.6%

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Friday, Aug 15, 2025 5:42 am ET1min read
BTC
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Aime RobotAime Summary

- Bitcoin stabilizes at $119,040, supported by 50-day SMA and 0.236 Fibonacci levels after retreating from $123,236 resistance.

- RSI rebound and flattening MACD suggest easing bearish momentum, with potential for renewed rally toward $126,242 if $117,300 holds.

- Fed cut odds at 92.6% for September meeting follow strong PPI data, while upcoming retail sales could influence risk appetite and breakout potential.

- Technicals favor bullish continuation above $126,000 toward $130,000, but breakdown below $117,300 risks exposing $113,650 invalidation level.

- Traders target $123,200-$126,200 with stops below $113,650, as dovish Fed signals and macro catalysts position Bitcoin for potential $130k+ move.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $119,040, stabilizing after a decline from the $123,236 resistance level seen earlier in the week. On the 4-hour chart, the price remains within an ascending channel that has guided its uptrend since early August. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $118,753 is serving as a dynamic support level, effectively halting short-term pullbacks. Additionally, the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $117,335 has held as a structural floor, offering further support [1].

The relative strength index (RSI) has recently bounced from the mid-40s, indicating that selling pressure is easing. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is flattening, suggesting bearish momentum is losing steam [1]. If

Bitcoin
sustains its position above $117,300, bulls could attempt a renewed push toward the $123,236 resistance zone, with $126,242 identified as the next potential technical target [1].

The macroeconomic backdrop continues to influence sentiment. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 92.6% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to a range of 4.00–4.25% at its September 17 meeting, down from the current 4.25–4.50% range [1]. This shift in expectations followed a surprise positive U.S. producer price index (PPI) reading of +0.9%—well above the forecasted 0.2%—and stable weekly jobless claims at 224K [1]. Traders will also closely watch Friday’s U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment data, as a weaker print could boost risk appetite and support a breakout above $123,236 [1].

From a technical standpoint, the price structure remains bullish. The ascending channel remains intact, with higher lows reinforcing the uptrend. A breakout above $126,000 could trigger further buying and push Bitcoin toward $130,000, a level that represents both a supply zone and a psychological barrier. If this occurs, the channel’s upper boundary could extend to $150,000 in the coming quarters [1]. Conversely, a close below $117,300 would expose the $113,650 invalidation level, where the 100-day SMA resides [1].

For traders, the accumulation zone between $117,300 and $118,000 offers a favorable risk-reward setup. Long positions could target $123,200 first, followed by $126,200, with stops placed just below $113,650 to mitigate the risk of a deeper correction [1]. With technicals stabilizing, the Federal Reserve showing a dovish bias, and key macroeconomic catalysts approaching, Bitcoin could see a significant move in the near future. If bulls manage to hold current support levels and regain momentum, a rally toward $130,000 and beyond may be on the horizon [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will $119K Support Hold as RSI Dips and Fed Cut Odds Hit 92%?

https://cryptonews.com/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-holds-119k-as-fed-cut-odds-near-93/