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Bitcoin's recent rally has shown no signs of slowing down, with analysts predicting that the cryptocurrency may continue to defy seasonal trends and extend its record-breaking streak. According to Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares, the structural imbalance between surging demand and a rapidly vanishing supply base makes a prolonged correction increasingly unlikely. Mena highlighted that both exchange and over-the-counter (OTC)
supplies have dropped to all-time lows, while institutional demand continues to grow stronger.Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $122,884 on Monday, surpassing its previous peak of $111,970 on July 9. This uptrend has persisted through the summer, a historically slow period for the market. Analysts from Bitfinex noted that buyers are now more "price agnostic" than ever, absorbing newly mined BTC faster than miners can produce. Additionally, André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, observed that retail search interest for "Bitcoin" remains surprisingly low despite the new records, indicating that this rally is driven more by institutional flows than by retail traders' fear of missing out (FOMO).
Mena pointed out that US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have already absorbed several multiples of the BTC supply that will be mined this year. He also noted that corporate treasury buyers continue to add to their holdings quietly in the background. However, Mena cautioned that macro risks, such as harsher-than-expected tariffs proposed by President Trump or a pushback on anticipated rate cuts by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, could still inject turbulence into the market. Despite these risks, Mena believes that once summer ends and market liquidity returns, upside momentum will likely resume. He emphasized that it is remarkable for Bitcoin to be setting new all-time highs during the most illiquid, seasonally weak part of the year, referencing data showing that Q3 has historically delivered just a 6.32% return for Bitcoin on average since 2013.

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