Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Hits $118K as Citi Projects $135K Year-End Target $199K in Bullish Case

Bitcoin’s recent price action has drawn renewed attention from analysts and market participants, with two distinct but optimistic scenarios emerging for the coming week. Citigroup forecasts a dual-path trajectory, projecting a base-case target of $135,000 by year-end and a bullish scenario of $199,000 under favorable conditions [1]. This optimism is bolstered by institutional activity, including Volcon Inc.’s acquisition of 3,183 Bitcoin at an average price of $117,697 per coin, reflecting confidence in the asset’s long-term value [2].

The immediate market context shows Bitcoin surging to $118,000 amid broader volatility, driven by speculation that it could outperform traditional assets [3]. On-chain data from Glassnode reveals a notable shift in holding patterns: long-term holders (those with Bitcoin for over 155 days) have sold over 210,000 BTC this month, while short-term holders have accumulated 250,000 BTC, signaling a transition in demand dynamics [1]. This aligns with historical trends, as Bitcoin has averaged a 7% return in July since 2013, currently up 8% from its July start [1].

Technical analysis underscores key support levels. The CME Bitcoin Futures gap between $114,355 and $115,670—often a focal point during price corrections—remains critical for traders. Derivatives data highlights robust positioning, with Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) at $34.1 billion, led by Binance ($14.2 billion) and Bybit ($9.5 billion) [1]. Perpetual funding rates also reflect strong speculative demand, particularly on Hyperliquid, where annualized rates reached 90%, outpacing altcoins like SOL and HYPE [1].

Institutional demand is further amplified by strategic investments. A $2.5 billion STRC perpetual preferred stock offering by Strategy (MSTR) could absorb 21,500 BTC at $115,000, signaling deeper institutional exposure to crypto-linked equities [1]. This trend aligns with broader adoption, as public companies increasingly diversify portfolios with altcoin treasuries, though analysts caution such moves remain speculative [4].

The bullish narrative is reinforced by derivatives positioning: Bitcoin’s put-call ratio favors calls, with 52% of total contracts, while Ether’s 54% call dominance underscores a broader risk-on sentiment [1]. Open interest for both assets remains near record highs, with Bitcoin’s at $83.5 billion and Ether’s at $9.6 billion [1]. Ethereum’s 46% surge to $3,725 and its rising staking rate to 2.96% further highlight crypto’s appeal amid traditional market weaknesses [1].

However, risks persist. Citigroup’s bearish scenario projects a potential drop to $64,000, though the current $118,000 level suggests stronger resilience. August’s historically quieter liquidity environment and macroeconomic events—such as U.S. durable goods data and new tariffs—could introduce volatility [1].

Key upcoming events include Starknet’s mainnet upgrade and a webinar on Bitcoin’s potential as a global reserve currency [1]. For Bitcoin, maintaining above $115,670 will validate the CME gap-fill thesis, while institutional inflows and macroeconomic developments will determine whether the $135,000 base case or $199,000 bullish scenario materializes.

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin to Hit $135K by Year-End in Base-Case Forecast, $199K in Bullish Scenario: Citi](https://cryptoadventure.com/bitcoin-to-hit-135k-by-year-end-in-base-case-forecast-199k-in-bullish-scenario-citi/)

[2] [Volcon Invests Heavily in Bitcoin Amid Market Peaks](https://m.economictimes.com/crypto-news-today-live-25-jul-2025/liveblog/122889124.cms)

[3] [Bitcoin Bulls Take Charge: BTC Price Surges to $118K!](https://www.instagram.com/p/DMlKipuor5p/)

[4] [Companies Load Up on Niche Crypto Tokens to Boost Share Prices](https://www.coindesk.com)