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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Eight Years After SegWit, Market Analysts and Traders Weigh in on the Potential for a New Rally [1]
August 1, 2025, marks eight years since the activation of the Segregated Witness (SegWit) upgrade, a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s (BTC) history. Known as “Bitcoin Independence Day,” the update reduced the influence of large mining pools, enhanced transaction efficiency, and paved the way for off-chain scalability through the Lightning Network [1]. This milestone emerged from a heated ideological debate known as the “block size war,” where advocates like Roger Ver pushed for larger blocks to improve scalability [1]. Opponents, however, argued that expanding block sizes would lead to centralization by favoring operators with high-capacity infrastructure [1]. Ultimately, BIP 91 activated SegWit, preserving decentralization while enabling faster solutions. The competing vision launched Bitcoin Cash (BCH), but it has not replicated BTC’s dominance.
The market performance of the two cryptocurrencies over the past eight years is telling. On August 1, 2017, BTC traded at approximately $2,718, and by August 1, 2025, it reached roughly $115,000—an increase of over 4,200%. Meanwhile, BCH, which started at $550 in 2017, peaked at $1,600 in May 2021 but later fell as low as $90 in 2022. As of August 1, 2025, BCH trades around $552, with a market capitalization of approximately $10.9 billion, compared to BTC’s $2.2 trillion [1]. BTC has solidified its position as the premier store of value, while BCH has struggled to gain traction for mass adoption.
Despite the historical significance of this anniversary, technical indicators for BTC currently point to a bearish outlook. The price recently broke below a key ascending trendline near $117,000 and is forming a descending triangle pattern. On the 4-hour chart, bearish candlestick patterns like the bearish engulfing and Three Black Crows suggest continued selling pressure [1]. Key resistance sits at $114,942, with support levels at $112,643, $110,587, and $108,420. The RSI is at 30.63, near oversold territory, but has yet to show bullish divergence. A failed bounce at $114,900 presents a short setup with a stop-loss above $116,000 and conservative price targets at $112,600 and $110,600. A reversal is likely only after a sustained close above $117,000 with strong volume.
Meanwhile, new developments in the BTC ecosystem are drawing attention. Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), the first BTC-native Layer 2 solution built on the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM), has raised over $6.2 million in a public presale, reaching 29% of its $21.6 million target. Priced at $0.0115, $HYPER aims to combine BTC’s security with Solana’s speed, offering low-cost smart contracts, dApps, and meme coin creation [1]. The project, audited and engineered for scalability, is expected to launch in Q1 2025 and has gained traction due to its unique positioning in the Layer 2 space.
Eight years after SegWit, BTC’s ideological resilience and technological adaptability have allowed it to remain the leading digital asset. This year’s “Independence Day” reinforces the protocol’s strength in fostering community consensus and innovation. Whether this milestone sparks a new rally or serves as a moment of reflection, BTC’s evolution as both a decentralized system and a multi-trillion-dollar asset remains unparalleled [1].
Source: [1] Bitcoin Price Prediction: 8 Years After SegWit, Will This “Independence Day” Drive the Next BTC Rally? (https://cryptonews.com/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-8-years-after-segwit-will-this-independence-day-drive-the-next-btc-rally/)
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