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Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons signal, a key on-chain metric used to assess miner activity and potential price trends, has recently concluded after persisting for nearly a month. The signal, triggered when the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate fell below the 60-day average, indicated heightened miner stress amid a sharp decline in the network’s hash rate to 658 exahashes per second (EH/s) in mid-June. This drop, attributed to a severe U.S. summer heatwave disrupting power grids and forcing temporary mine shutdowns, created a period of operational strain for miners. However, the signal’s end coincided with a rebound in the hash rate to 1.0322 zettahashes per second (ZH/s) by July 15, signaling stabilization in mining activity as the 30-day moving average re-crossed above the 60-day line [1].
Historically, the Hash Ribbons signal has been linked to miner capitulation events, which often precede Bitcoin’s bullish phases. For instance, the indicator last appeared in June 2024 as
neared $100,000, with similar patterns observed in prior cycles [1]. This time, however, the signal’s effectiveness has been called into question. While the 30-day hash rate recovery aligns with historical norms, Bitcoin’s price response has been muted, rising just 8% since the signal’s activation—far below the typical 38-40% gain following past signals [2]. Analysts suggest this discrepancy may reflect evolving market dynamics, such as macroeconomic pressures and shifting investor sentiment, which could weaken traditional on-chain correlations.CryptoQuant’s analysis highlights that the Hash Ribbons signal often marks the end of miner sell-offs, allowing buyers to enter at favorable levels. Yet, the current market environment complicates its predictive power. TradingParrot, a prominent analyst on X, noted that while the signal appears “most bullish” in recent memory, its relevance remains debated due to external factors like regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds [2]. These variables could override on-chain metrics, as seen in Bitcoin’s recent sideways movement despite stable miner activity.
The network’s hash rate recovery underscores sustained miner participation, even as price gains lag. This divergence suggests miners may be maintaining operations despite lower returns, potentially delaying the next capitulation event that historically drives price recoveries [3]. Meanwhile, broader crypto market weakness—driven by underperforming altcoins and risk-averse investor behavior—further limits the signal’s immediate impact. Analysts caution against overreliance on the Hash Ribbons metric, emphasizing the need for a multi-indicator approach to assess Bitcoin’s trajectory [4].
As the signal fades, attention turns to Bitcoin’s ability to break key resistance levels and rekindle bullish momentum. While historical patterns suggest a potential rebound, the current trajectory highlights the evolving nature of crypto markets. Without additional catalysts—such as regulatory clarity or macroeconomic easing—Bitcoin may remain in a consolidation phase, even as on-chain metrics stabilize [1].
Sources:
[1] [Hash Ribbons Signal Ends – Here’s What It Could Mean for Bitcoin’s Next Move](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68836152****453433dceee0/)
[2] [The Trading Parrot (@TradingParrot) / X](https://x.com/tradingparrot?lang=en)
[3] [CryptoQuant Quicktake's Profile | Binance Square](https://www.binance.com/en/square/profile/cryptoquant_quicktake)
[4] [Bitcoin Liquid Index Ideas — BNC:BLX](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BLX/ideas/)

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