Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Gold Parity Case Gains Traction as Banks Target $150K+ by 2025

Bitcoin's potential to reach $150,000 by year-end 2025 has gained traction among major financial institutions, driven by sustained ETF inflows, institutional adoption, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Standard Chartered have outlined price targets ranging from $133,000 to $200,000, with their analyses rooted in Bitcoin's correlation to gold, post-halving supply dynamics, and the asset's growing role as a store of value. These forecasts align with historical seasonality patterns, particularly the "Uptober" phenomenon, where October has historically delivered strong gains for Bitcoin.

A key driver of optimism is the surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows, which have surpassed $163.5 billion in assets under management as of late 2025. Citigroup estimates an additional $7.5 billion in inflows by year-end, while Standard Chartered highlights weekly inflows averaging over $500 million. These flows, coupled with corporate and institutional treasury allocations, are seen as structural catalysts for Bitcoin's next upward phase. JPMorgan's analysis further notes Bitcoin's undervaluation relative to gold when adjusted for volatility, suggesting a 42% market cap increase is warranted to match gold's $6 trillion private holdings.

On-chain data reinforces the bullish narrative. Whale activity has intensified, with large transactions increasing by 38.46% in Q1 2025, and dormant coins being moved after seven years of inactivity. The declining supply of Bitcoin on exchanges-down to 2.5 million BTC by April 2025-indicates a tightening liquidity environment, which could amplify price appreciation. Meanwhile, the Lightning Network's growth, with public channel capacity exceeding 5,358 BTC, enhances Bitcoin's utility for everyday transactions.

Macro factors also play a pivotal role. The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, expected to continue into late 2025, could boost liquidity and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, 10x Research warns of a $20,000 price swing in either direction during early Q4, citing weak bullish drivers and technical pressures at key resistance levels such as $115,000. The firm notes that on-chain data, including whale selling of 147,000 BTC in a month, adds downward pressure.

Regulatory clarity is another tailwind. The U.S. pro-crypto stance, including the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Trump administration's strategic Bitcoin reserve proposal, has bolstered institutional confidence. However, divergent regulatory approaches between the U.S. and EU, such as the EU's MiCAR framework, could influence market fragmentation. The potential for new ETFs targeting assets like Solana and XRP may further diversify capital flows into crypto markets.

While the base case for Bitcoin ranges between $110,000 and $150,000 in Q3 and $130,000–$180,000 in Q4, scenarios hinge on macroeconomic stability and regulatory outcomes. A bearish case, though deemed less likely, could see prices dip to $60,000–$80,000 if global recessions or restrictive policies emerge. Conversely, a bullish scenario, fueled by institutional FOMO and a weakening U.S. dollar, could push Bitcoin toward $200,000–$250,000.

[1] "Bitcoin Boom in Q4: JPMorgan Analysts Predict $165K BTC Price" (https://cointelegraph.com/news/jpmorgan-citi-bitcoin-q4-boom-btc-price-targets)

[2] "Bitcoin Q4 2025 Forecast: BTC Could Move $20K Amid Weak" (https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-q4-2025-forecast-btc-could-move-20k-amid-weak-uptober-rally/)

[3] "Bitcoin Price Prediction for Q3 and Q4 2025 - Gov Capital" (https://gov.capital/bitcoin-price-prediction-for-q3-and-q4-2025/)