Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Gains Outpace MicroStrategy's Stock as Dilution and Skepticism Mount

MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) has seen its stock price decline amid a confluence of factors tied to its heavy exposure to Bitcoin and corporate strategy. As of October 2025, the company's stock trades at a multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) of 1.21x, the lowest since February 2024, reflecting a 21% premium over its $78 billion in Bitcoin holdings. This marks a stark contrast to the 240% premium seen in late 2024, as Bitcoin's year-to-date (YTD) gain of 31% outpaced MSTR's 13.3% return . The narrowing gap underscores investor skepticism about the company's ability to outperform direct Bitcoin exposure, a core tenet of its business model.

The decline in MSTR's mNAV is attributed to both external and internal pressures. Externally, Bitcoin's volatility has directly impacted the stock, which has historically moved in tandem with the cryptocurrency. For instance, a 7% drop in Bitcoin's price to $92,000 in late September 2025 coincided with an 8% weekly decline in MSTR shares . Internally, the company's capital-raising strategy has exacerbated concerns. MicroStrategy has raised $68 million via preferred stock in October 2025 alone to acquire 525 BTC, with 90% of its recent fundraising coming from common-stock issuances. These equity raises dilute existing shareholders, contributing to the falling mNAV. Since 2020, shareholders have reportedly been diluted by 260% .

Insider selling further compounds the issue. Founder Michael Saylor and board member Carl Rickertsen have sold millions of dollars in MSTR shares in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Rickertsen liquidated his entire $10 million stake this year, while Saylor's sales have added to market supply. Analysts note that insider exits and dilution have reinforced investor caution, amplifying the stock's sensitivity to Bitcoin's price swings .

The company's reliance on Bitcoin has also drawn regulatory scrutiny. Investigations into crypto-treasury firms for potential insider trading and disclosure violations have added uncertainty. These risks, combined with Bitcoin's volatility, have shifted market focus from MicroStrategy's software business-which generates under $350 million in trailing 12-month gross profit-to its role as a Bitcoin proxy . The software segment now accounts for a fraction of the company's $94 billion market cap, which implies a $16 billion equity premium over its Bitcoin holdings .

Looking ahead, MicroStrategy's stock is likely to remain tightly correlated with Bitcoin's price. With the mNAV near break-even, any recovery in MSTR would depend on renewed Bitcoin gains or improvements in its core business. However, analysts caution that the company's aggressive capital-raising plan-aimed at raising $42 billion through 2027-could further dilute shareholders. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer reiterated a "Buy" rating with a $705 price target, citing the company's structural advantages in Bitcoin-backed fixed income, but emphasized that the stock's success hinges on sustained crypto gains .

The broader implications for corporate Bitcoin adoption are also under scrutiny. MicroStrategy's experience highlights the risks of concentrating a company's value in a volatile asset while relying on equity issuance to fund purchases. Regulators may intensify oversight of crypto-treasury disclosures, potentially influencing how public companies manage such assets. For investors, the stock's performance now hinges on Bitcoin's trajectory and MicroStrategy's ability to address dilution concerns without compromising its long-term strategy.

: The Coin Republic (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/10/09/mstr-stock-trades-at-just-1-21x-btc-holdings-weakest-mnav-since-early-2024/)

: WRAL MarketMinute (https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-9-27-microstrategys-steep-descent-bitcoin-volatility-and-dilution-fears-rock-mstr-stock)

: Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-strategy-mstr-down-8-113434727.html)

: InvestingCube (https://www.investingcube.com/cryptocurrency/microstrategy-stock-plunges-as-bitcoin-drops-to-92k-whats-next-for-mstr-in-2025/)

: Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/benchmark-reiterates-buy-rating-on-microstrategy-stock-705-price-target-93CH-4219223)