Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s future now rides macro tides, not halving clocks.

Bitcoin’s market cycles are increasingly being reevaluated, as analysts challenge the conventional notion that these cycles are anchored around the four-year halving events. James Check, a well-known analyst in the cryptocurrency space, argues that the cycles are driven not by halvings but by trends in adoption and market structure. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin has experienced three distinct cycles, each defined by different phases of market maturity and investor behavior. The first cycle, from 2011 to 2018, was characterized by early retail adoption, the second from 2018 to 2022 by a volatile “Wild West” era of leveraged trading, and the current cycle, from 2022 onward, is shaped by institutional participation and a more stable market environment [1].

This shift in perspective comes at a time when the cryptocurrency market is experiencing notable changes in dynamics. The post-2022 bear market has altered the landscape, with investors and analysts alike questioning whether the traditional four-year cycle remains relevant. While some, like Matthew Hougan of Bitwise, suggest the cycle is over, others argue that the current bull market may extend into next year due to increased institutional adoption [1]. This debate reflects the growing complexity of Bitcoin’s price drivers, which now include macroeconomic factors such as global liquidity and ETF inflows [1].

The traditional view of Bitcoin’s price movements has been closely tied to halving events—moments when the block reward for mining is cut in half, reducing the rate at which new coins enter circulation. Historically, these events have been followed by significant bull runs, with peaks occurring roughly a year after the halving. However, recent data and analysis suggest that Bitcoin’s price is influenced by a broader set of factors. For example, the 2024 halving was followed by a surge in Bitcoin’s price, but some experts argue that this trend may not hold in the future [1].

Macroeconomic conditions are playing an increasingly pivotal role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. According to one report, the global liquidity peak is expected in late 2025, which could signal tighter markets and impact Bitcoin’s performance. This liquidity dynamic, combined with the looming $33 trillion refinancing wall in 2026—when debt obligations in advanced economies will mature—could create a challenging environment for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin [2]. In this context, Bitcoin’s price may be more sensitive to global financial conditions than to its own halving cycle [2].

While the halving event remains a key event on the Bitcoin calendar, analysts are cautioning that the traditional four-year cycle may be less influential in the coming years. The increasing overlap between Bitcoin and traditional finance means that broader economic trends, such as interest rate cycles and regulatory developments, may now play a more significant role in shaping Bitcoin’s price [1]. For example, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has significantly increased institutional participation, further integrating Bitcoin into mainstream financial markets [4]. This shift suggests that Bitcoin’s price is no longer isolated from macroeconomic forces, and its future may depend more on global financial dynamics than on its own supply constraints [2].

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s price projections and market cycles remain uncertain. While some experts predict a bullish trend extending into 2028, others warn of potential volatility as global debt pressures and liquidity constraints come into play [2]. The market is entering a phase where multiple factors—halvings, institutional adoption, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory developments—will interact in complex ways to determine Bitcoin’s trajectory. As the cryptocurrency market continues to mature, understanding these interdependencies will be crucial for investors and analysts alike [1].

Source:

[1] James Check's analysis on Bitcoin market cycles (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-market-cycles-not-anchored-halvings-analyst)

[2] Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Set To Collide With TradFi's Debt Wall (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-tradfi-cycles-set-to-collide-in-2026-good-or-bad)

[3] Bitcoin Halving 2028 (https://naga.com/eu/academy/bitcoin-halving-2028)

[4] Bitcoin's 4-year cycle may not be dead after all: Glassnode (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-4-year-old-cycle-not-dead-crypto-analysts)