Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Fragile Rally: Bullish Banks Bet Big as Technical and Geopolitical Risks Loom

Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has surged to nearly 59%, a level not seen in years, as traders and analysts debate its technical outlook. However, recent data and expert analysis suggest a fragile setup, with bearish indicators emerging amid bullish price forecasts from major institutions. The shift has sparked renewed scrutiny of Bitcoin's role in institutional portfolios and its susceptibility to macroeconomic pressures TD Cowen Explains Bull and Bear Scenario for Bitcoin: Shares Price Target for Both!.

TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete have outlined a nuanced forecast for Bitcoin, predicting a base-case price of $141,277 by year-end, with a bullish scenario reaching $160,000 and a bearish drop to $60,000. Their analysis hinges on the purchasing behavior of MicroStrategy (rebranded as Strategy), the largest institutional BTC holder. According to the report, Strategy is expected to acquire approximately $4 billion in Bitcoin quarterly under the base case, with the bull scenario assuming over $4.5 billion in purchases and the bear case contingent on a halt due to capital constraints, as TD Cowen notes TD Cowen Explains Bull and Bear Scenario for Bitcoin: Shares Price Target for Both!.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Willy Woo has dismissed concerns about Strategy's potential liquidation of its Bitcoin holdings during a future bear market. He argues that the company's debt structure, which includes convertible notes, allows for settlement in stocks or cash, reducing the likelihood of selling Bitcoin to cover obligations. A critical threshold, he notes, is the MSTR stock price remaining above $183.19, which would delay any forced Bitcoin sales until 2027, as Willy Woo reports Willy Woo Dismisses Bitcoin Liquidation Risk for Strategy in Future Bear Market.

Geopolitical tensions have further complicated the outlook. China recently accused the U.S. of a "state hack," alleging the seizure of 127,000 Bitcoin worth $13 billion. While U.S. officials have not confirmed the claim, the dispute has injected uncertainty into the market. The stolen BTC, representing 0.65% of the total circulating supply, could influence liquidity and price volatility if locked out of circulation, as China's claim suggests China Accuses US of Stealing 127,000 Bitcoin Worth $13 Billion — Calls It a State Hack; BTC Price Prediction Turns Tense. Analysts warn that such geopolitical friction could exacerbate short-term FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) while potentially reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a "digital gold" asset.

The broader cryptocurrency ecosystem is also shifting. Cardano (ADA) reported a 28.7% surge in DeFi total value locked (TVL) to $423.5 million in Q3 2025, alongside a 42.5% rise in market capitalization to $29.5 billion. This growth highlights the diversification of crypto adoption, though Bitcoin's dominance remains unchallenged for now, as Cardano's data shows Cardano Sees 28% DeFi TVL Growth to 3-Year Peak, 42% Rise in Market Cap in Q3 2025.

Technical indicators, however, tell a cautionary tale. Bitcoin's recent 4% weekly decline, despite a $2.09 trillion market cap, underscores the fragility of its rally. Traders are closely watching support levels near the 356-day EMA (exponential moving average) around $105,000, where consolidation has formed after a mild correction, as the ET report notes China Accuses US of Stealing 127,000 Bitcoin Worth $13 Billion — Calls It a State Hack; BTC Price Prediction Turns Tense. The weak setup contrasts with institutional optimism, as TD Cowen and others project multi-year highs for Bitcoin.

As the year-end approaches, the interplay of institutional demand, geopolitical risks, and technical pressures will likely determine whether Bitcoin sustains its dominance or faces a correction. For now, the market remains in a delicate balancing act, with both bulls and bears positioning for pivotal developments.