Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s fragile calm masks a brewing investor showdown at key support levels.

Bitcoin's market structure is exhibiting signs of fragility, with selling pressure dominating across both spot and futures markets, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The cryptocurrency has retreated to around $111,000, finding support near a cost basis cluster between $93,000 and $110,000, as noted in the latest on-chain reports [1]. This area has been a key accumulation zone since December 2024, and further correction would require significant short-term sell pressure or a prolonged pause in demand to trigger capitulation among these holders [1].

Short-term holders, who entered the market within the past six months, are currently under stress, as Bitcoin trades below their cost basis. Specifically, the price has fallen beneath the 1-month ($115.6k) and 3-month ($113.6k) cohorts, placing these investors in a state of unrealized loss. Any potential relief rally is likely to face resistance at these levels, as short-term holders attempt to offload positions to break even [1]. The 6-month cost basis sits near $107k, and a sustained move below this level could accelerate a downward trend toward the $93k–$95k support zone [1].

Historical data suggests that such a break could precede a multi-month bearish phase, especially if the price remains beneath the $108.9k threshold. The 4-year statistical bands indicate that prior bearish drawdowns have typically found their lowest points one standard deviation beneath the short-term holders’ cost basis. For this cycle, the estimated lower bound for a potential bottom is near $95.1k [1]. These signals highlight the growing risk of a deeper correction should Bitcoin fail to regain control above these critical levels.

Despite the ongoing pressure, the current drawdown remains relatively shallow when compared to historical bear cycles. The recent decline to $110.1k represents an ~11.4% drop from the $124k all-time high, significantly less severe than the 25%+ corrections seen in prior mid-cycle bear markets or the 75%+ losses during deep cyclical lows. Additionally, unrealized losses remain far from extreme levels observed in past bear markets, with the Relative Unrealized Loss metric currently at just 0.5%, well below the >30% levels seen during the 2018–2020 and 2022–2023 cycles [1].

The on-chain metric Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also indicates that while unrealized losses exist, they have not yet led to widespread capitulation. The 7-day moving average of SOPR remains near the neutral 1.0 level, suggesting that most active investors are neither realizing significant profits nor losses [1]. This contrasts with historical bear market bottoms, where SOPR typically falls below 0.98, confirming widespread realization of losses. As such, while investor anxiety is rising, the market has not yet experienced the deep realization of pain that defines true bear market conditions.

Off-chain data also paints a mixed picture, with spot demand neutralizing and perpetual futures leaning bearish. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metric, which measures the net difference between buying and selling pressure, has converged toward zero across major exchanges, indicating reduced buyer conviction [1]. Meanwhile, perpetual futures markets have shifted into a negative bias, with funding rates remaining fragile and prone to rapid swings. This suggests that while speculative traders have increased their bearish positioning, the market remains in a state of fragile neutrality, where even modest sell pressure could tip the balance.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s current market structure remains vulnerable to further downside, with key support levels under pressure and short-term holders struggling to hold their positions. While the magnitude of unrealized losses and lack of widespread capitulation suggest the correction has not yet reached extreme levels, the combination of weak on-chain activity, bearish futures positioning, and fragile neutrality in perpetual markets points to a market in transition. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the current pullback is a temporary pause or the start of a deeper bearish phase. Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels and on-chain indicators closely as the market tests its structural resilience [1].

Source:

[1] The Week On-chain (https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-34-2025/)