Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin fractal model predicts $150 000 peak in October 2025

Bitcoin appears to be entering the final phase of its current bull market cycle, with analyst forecasts suggesting a potential peak as high as $150,000 by October 2025, based on recurring historical fractal patterns. The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred on April 15, 2024, and a consistent “tick-tock” fractal identified by CryptoBullet indicates that Bitcoin typically peaks around 518 to 546 days post-halving. At the end of July 2025, that window has narrowed to just 77 days, placing the anticipated market top in early October [1].

This prediction aligns with a broader pattern observed in previous halving cycles, where Bitcoin has historically seen significant price movements in the months following the event. Analysts note that while the timeline is precise, the ultimate price outcome depends on market dynamics, including investor sentiment and capital inflows [1]. Predictions of reaching $150,000 or even $200,000 by the year’s end are largely based on the fractal model and bullish market conditions rather than concrete market developments [1].

On-chain data further supports the possibility of a continued upward trend. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the ratio of new investor activity to old investor activity remains at 30%, significantly lower than the all-time highs of 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024, both of which coincided with local price peaks. These spikes are typically indicative of euphoric market phases and heavy profit-taking. The current level suggests that while new demand is increasing, the market remains in a relatively balanced state without overexuberance [1].

Adler Jr. notes that long-term holders—wallets that have held Bitcoin for over three years—are still selling moderately. The current absorption coefficient of 0.3 indicates that older supply is being gradually absorbed by new demand without causing sharp market fluctuations. This suggests that the market is still in a structurally healthy state, with institutional and ETF buying continuing to provide stability by offsetting intermittent sell pressure [1].

The ongoing accumulation by institutional players has been a key factor in containing short-term volatility and maintaining a favorable market environment. As Bitcoin moves closer to the projected October peak, the balance between new and old investor activity, along with strong institutional demand, will likely play a crucial role in determining whether the predicted price target is met.

Source: [1] Bitcoin 'tick tock' fractal predicts $150K BTC price top in October (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-tick-tock-fractal-predicts-150k-btc-price-top-october)