Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s Fate Now Hinges on Powell’s Jackson Hole Signal

Bitcoin’s price has retreated from its recent all-time high of $124,450, trading in a range between $113,000 and $114,200. The decline follows the cryptocurrency breaking below the 50-day moving average at $116,033, which has now become resistance. Technical indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44, suggesting bearish momentum, while the MACD has turned negative. Traders are closely monitoring the $112,000–$112,500 support zone, as a decisive break lower could accelerate losses toward $108,000 or even $105,150. A recovery above $115,000, however, could open the path back toward $117,261 and the next psychological ceiling at $120,900 [1].

The recent price weakness has been driven in part by outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. In a single day, $523 million exited these funds, with Fidelity and Grayscale leading the redemptions—marking the largest daily outflow since June. Futures markets have also contributed to the selloff, as more than $2.3 billion in open interest was wiped out during the recent downturn. Over $100 million in long positions were liquidated, highlighting the role of leverage in Bitcoin’s sharp decline from above $124,000 to the current range near $113,000 [1].

The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is seen as a potential turning point for Bitcoin. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech is expected to influence the market, with traders pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September and another in December. A hawkish tone from Powell could reinforce dollar strength, pushing Bitcoin lower, while a dovish message could boost demand and send BTC back toward $120,000–$124,000 levels. Bitcoin’s strong negative correlation to the U.S. dollar remains intact, with the DXY index recently rising 3%, adding pressure to the cryptocurrency [1].

Despite the retail market’s caution, institutional buying has continued to provide support. China Hong Kong-based Ming Shing Group Holdings recently announced a $483 million purchase of 4,250 BTC at an average price of $113,638, funded through convertible notes and warrants. The structure of this purchase—$241.48 million in promissory notes at 3% interest with a 120-month maturity—indicates long-term confidence in Bitcoin. Similarly, Japanese firm Metaplanet has added 775 BTC to its treasury, bringing its total holdings to 18,888 BTC, reinforcing corporate Bitcoin adoption in Asia [1].

On-chain activity presents a mixed outlook. Active Bitcoin addresses have continued to decline, raising concerns about the sustainability of the rally. However, whale accumulation has shown bullish tendencies, including a $23 million purchase of 200 BTC during the recent price dip. Long-term holders now control nearly 5 million BTC, signaling a strong accumulation strategy. Analysts suggest that such pullbacks serve to transfer Bitcoin from weak to strong hands, a pattern observed in prior bull cycles [1].

Looking ahead, Bitcoin faces a critical juncture. If BTC-USD breaks the $112,000 support level, the next target could be $104,000. A rebound above the 50-day EMA at $116,000 would shift momentum back to the bulls, potentially targeting $120,000 and even $124,000. In the long term, Bitcoin’s trajectory depends on institutional inflows, macroeconomic conditions, and the Fed’s stance. While the immediate path remains uncertain, the presence of significant corporate and institutional buying provides a foundation for eventual recovery [1].

Source: [1] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD at $113K Faces Powell's Jackson Hole Test (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/-btc-usd-at-113k-usd-faces-powells-jackson-hole-test) [2] Bitcoin Price Faces Heavy Obstacles on Its Recovery Journey (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1056606-20250821)