Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Fate Now Hinges on Powell's Jackson Hole Gambit

Bitcoin’s recent volatility has heightened speculation about the potential implications of Federal Reserve policy, with analysts emphasizing that the central bank’s next steps—especially its decision on interest rates—could play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the cryptocurrency. On August 18, Bitcoin dropped below $115,000 after hitting an all-time high of over $124,000 earlier in the month, according to data from Coinbase and TradingView. This pullback has intensified market attention on Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for August 22, which is seen as a key indicator of the Fed’s stance ahead of its September meeting [1].

Analysts suggest that Powell’s remarks could influence not only broader financial markets but also the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price movement. Ryan Rabaglia, a general partner at Rise Capital, noted that the Jackson Hole event historically has been a stage for major Fed announcements, including potential interest rate adjustments. He stated that the speech would likely set the tone for the Fed’s actions in September, with market participants widely anticipating a 25 basis points rate cut. However, the possibility of a delay or deviation from this expectation remains a risk factor for Bitcoin, particularly if the Fed signals a more hawkish stance [1].

Tom Bruni, editor-in-chief at Stocktwits, echoed the significance of Powell’s messaging, stating that traders are closely monitoring for any indication of whether a rate cut will occur in September. He noted that Bitcoin’s inability to maintain its recent rally has led to a wait-and-see posture among investors, who are now watching for a reestablishment of bullish momentum. Bruni added that if the Fed’s commentary fails to confirm a rate cut, Bitcoin could face further downward pressure, with the 200-day moving average near $100,000 serving as a key support level [1].

Greg Magadini of Amberdata pointed out the political dimension of the upcoming Jackson Hole speech, suggesting it could be Powell’s last stand in defending Fed independence against external pressures, particularly from President Donald Trump. Trump has previously indicated a preference for a significantly lower federal funds rate and has also suggested replacing Powell before his term expires in 2026. Magadini argued that Powell might use the speech to push back against these pressures, reinforcing the Fed’s autonomy in monetary policy decisions [1].

Beyond the Fed’s influence, analysts have highlighted other factors that could impact Bitcoin in the near term. Joe DiPasquale of BitBull Capital emphasized that macroeconomic developments, such as inflation data and continued expectations for rate cuts, remain crucial for risk appetite in financial markets. In the crypto space, he noted the importance of tracking flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and signs of institutional investment as potential catalysts for price movements. Technically, DiPasquale identified $112,000 as an initial support level, while $120,000–$125,000 is seen as the resistance zone for any further upward push [1].

Brett Sifling of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management underscored the importance of regulatory developments in shaping Bitcoin’s future. He pointed to ongoing legislative efforts such as the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act as indicators of the U.S. government’s growing focus on digital assets. These legislative initiatives could influence market sentiment and investor confidence in the broader crypto ecosystem [1].

Source: [1] 'All Eyes' Are On This Week's Fed Gathering After Bitcoin Suffers Pullback (https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/08/18/all-eyes-are-on-this-weeks-fed-gathering-after-bitcoin-suffers-pullback/)