Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Fate Hinges on Fed Moves and $113K Support Test

Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains under intense scrutiny as market participants await critical developments from the U.S. Federal Reserve and broader macroeconomic signals. Following a recent dip to $112,565—a two-week low—on Aug. 3, Bitcoin has oscillated near the $113,000 level amid uncertainty surrounding Fed policy and global economic data [1]. Analysts have highlighted the psychological significance of this level, noting that maintaining support could set the stage for a new bullish phase. “Now, letting the narratives settle and liquidity return might pave the way for a rebound,” said Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget exchange [1].

The market’s reaction is further shaped by shifting expectations regarding U.S. interest rate policy. On Aug. 12, the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed annual inflation at 2.7%, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target and reducing the probability of an interest rate cut in September. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the likelihood of a rate cut dropped to 82%, down from over 94% a week earlier [1]. A delayed rate cut could prolong restrictive monetary conditions, affecting liquidity flows into high-beta assets like Bitcoin. André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, emphasized that a Fed rate cut in 2025 could act as a catalyst, potentially leading to multiple reductions by year-end and accelerating money supply growth [1].

Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, institutional interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to expand. According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, at least 297 public entities held Bitcoin as of early August, up from 124 in June. These include 169 public firms, 57 private firms, and 12 governments, collectively accumulating 3.67 million BTC—representing over 17% of the total supply [1]. This trend reflects a growing corporate adoption of Bitcoin as part of diversified balance sheet strategies, mimicking the approach taken by companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) [2]. Corporate buying has offset some of the pressure from macroeconomic uncertainties, helping to stabilize prices during periods of volatility.

Bitcoin’s price action has also drawn attention from analysts who see it as part of a broader digital asset revolution. Bernstein analysts, for instance, predict that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $200,000 within the next six to 12 months, citing regulatory reforms and growing institutional interest as key drivers [2]. This forecast aligns with recent legislative developments, including President Trump’s executive order on 401(k) plans and the enactment of the GENIUS Act, which created a federal framework for stablecoins. “We believe we are still early in the crypto cycle,” wrote Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein, who also noted that Bitcoin could revisit its recent highs of $124,000 later this year [2].

The broader cryptocurrency market, however, has faced recent volatility. In early August, Bitcoin fell below $114,000 after hitting a record high of $124,496 the previous week [3]. This decline coincided with a wave of forced liquidations exceeding $500 million across the crypto space, driven by profit-taking and macroeconomic concerns [3]. Ether (ETH) and other altcoins also experienced sharp declines, with ether falling below $4,200. The sell-off intensified as investors braced for the release of Fed policy minutes and Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. These events are expected to clarify the timing of potential rate cuts and shape market sentiment for the remainder of the year.

The upcoming Fed meetings and Powell’s speech are seen as pivotal for Bitcoin’s near-term direction. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is currently anticipated, marking a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle after an eight-month pause [4]. However, some analysts warn against complacency, noting that factors like Trump-era trade policies and sticky inflation data could delay easing. “The path to rate cuts may be uneven,” wrote Edward Jones strategist Angelo Kourkafas, adding that a hawkish tone from Powell could deepen the current crypto sell-off [4]. For now, Bitcoin remains in a critical phase, with its ability to maintain key support levels likely to determine whether it continues its rally or faces a more prolonged consolidation period.

Source:

[1] Investors brace for Powell speech as Bitcoin dips near $112K (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dips-fed-powell-speech)

[2] Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within 6 months during 'long ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-could-reach-200000-within-6-months-during-long-exhausting-crypto-bull-market-173358527.html)

[3] Bitcoin sinks to $115000 after hitting its newest record, as ... (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/18/crypto-market-today.html)

[4] Volatility Meltdown Everywhere as Powell's Jackson Hole ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/17/volatility-vanishes-across-markets-as-traders-brace-for-powell-s-jackson-hole-speech)