Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s Fate Hangs on Fed Moves and Nvidia’s AI Earnings Reckoning

Bitcoin faces mounting pressure as market participants brace for a potential sell-off triggered by two major factors: a Trump-backed shift in Federal Reserve policy and the upcoming earnings report from tech giant Nvidia, which could signal a whale-driven exodus from the asset class. Analysts warn that the combination of a dovish Fed and a potentially volatile Nvidia earnings release may intensify selling pressure on Bitcoin, particularly given its heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and risk-off sentiment in the broader market.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has recently signaled a more dovish stance, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that downside risks to the labor market are rising, while inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. This shift has led traders to price in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, according to market data. The dovish tilt, combined with recent tariff-related uncertainties, has raised concerns about stagflationary pressures. Such an environment typically favors gold and other safe-haven assets but can weigh heavily on high-beta assets like Bitcoin, which have been trading in a volatile range as macroeconomic expectations evolve.

Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report its second-quarter earnings after the close on Wednesday, with analysts expecting strong results that could further influence market sentiment. As the world's most valuable public company with a market capitalization of over $4 trillion, Nvidia accounts for approximately 8% of the S&P 500, making it a significant bellwether for broader market movements. Recent options data suggests that traders are anticipating a large post-earnings swing, with the S&P 500 potentially moving as much as 0.9% in either direction. A sharp move in the S&P 500 following Nvidia’s report could trigger a broader reevaluation of risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Nvidia’s performance is closely tied to the AI trade, which has seen a surge in recent months. The company’s dominance in AI chip manufacturing gives it significant influence over other AI-related stocks and sectors. Historical data shows that past earnings reports from Nvidia have had ripple effects across semiconductor and tech beneficiary stocks, often leading to sharp swings in related equities. The AI sector is now a more prominent part of the S&P 500 than in February, meaning that any volatility from Nvidia's earnings could be more pronounced than in the past. If the results fall short of expectations or if guidance is weak, the broader AI trade could come under pressure, indirectly affecting Bitcoin through reduced risk appetite and capital reallocation.

Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. government has imposed a 15% fee on Nvidia's sales to China, following a series of policy shifts under the Trump administration. The company has already warned that it expects an $8 billion hit to its Q2 earnings due to this new policy. While Nvidia is currently exempt from the proposed 100% tariff on semiconductor shipments into the U.S., the regulatory environment remains fluid and could shift further in the coming months. This regulatory uncertainty, coupled with geopolitical tensions and potential inflationary pressures from tariffs, contributes to an environment where investors may favor more liquid or stable assets like gold over high-risk digital assets like Bitcoin.

In terms of Bitcoin’s technical outlook, it remains under pressure as the market digests these macroeconomic and sector-specific developments. The asset has shown sensitivity to both interest rate expectations and risk-on/risk-off sentiment. With the Fed poised for a potential cut and Nvidia’s earnings set to influence the broader tech sector, Bitcoin could see increased volatility in the near term. If the market reacts to either a dovish Fed or a weaker-than-expected Nvidia report with a risk-off move, Bitcoin may face renewed selling pressure, particularly from large institutional holders.

Market participants will be closely watching the upcoming week’s economic calendar, which includes key data releases such as the Core PCE Price Index and Nonfarm Payrolls. These reports could provide further clarity on the Fed’s stance and influence the trajectory of interest rates. For now, the interplay between the Fed’s policy direction, Nvidia’s earnings performance, and broader macroeconomic risks presents a challenging outlook for Bitcoin and other high-beta assets. As the market braces for a potential sell-off, investors may look to hedge their positions or reallocate capital into safer assets, further weighing on Bitcoin’s price in the short term.

Source:

[1] After Months of Calm, Nvidia Earnings Could Spark a Big Stock Market Move (https://www.investopedia.com/after-months-of-calm-nvidia-earnings-could-spark-a-big-stock-market-move-11797843)

[2] Nvidia to report second quarter earnings, expects $8 billion hit from China chip ban (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-to-report-second-quarter-earnings-expects-8-billion-hit-from-china-chip-ban-162719205.html)

[3] Can Nvidia Stock (NVDA) Defend Its AI Crown as Q2 Earnings Approach? (https://www.tipranks.com/news/can-nvidia-stock-nvda-defend-its-ai-crown-as-q2-earnings-approach)

[4] Gold climbs as Powell flags rising labor risks, dovish Fed tilt (https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-as-powell-flags-rising-labor-risks-dovish-fed-tilt-202508221844)

[5] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound jumps above 1.3500 on Powell’s dovish pivot (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-sterling-jumps-above-13500-usd)