Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Fate in December Tied to Fed's Rate Cut Signals and QT Exit

Bitcoin's price trajectory on December 1st could hinge on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech, as market participants brace for clues about the central bank's monetary policy direction. With the Fed set to conclude its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1, the end of balance sheet reductions may signal a shift in liquidity dynamics, potentially boosting risk assets like Bitcoin according to Barrons. Analysts are closely watching whether Powell's remarks will hint at rate cuts in December or delay further tightening, a decision that could reverberate across crypto markets.

Recent data shows Bitcoin stabilizing above $90,000, with BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) holders returning to a cumulative $3.2 billion profit after weeks of volatility. This recovery follows a sharp $19 billion liquidation event triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff announcement and a broader market selloff in late October. The ETF's inflows-$21 million on Wednesday-suggest renewed investor confidence, though the fund remains the only spot Bitcoin ETF with positive inflows this year according to Cointelegraph. Meanwhile, BlackRock's dominance in the asset management sector, with $13.5 trillion in assets under management, amplifies the significance of its fund's performance as a market barometer according to Cointelegraph.

The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and non-unanimous decision to pause further reductions according to Barrons have added complexity to the outlook. While November's economic calendar includes critical inflation and retail sales data, the focus remains on the December meeting. A 46% increase in the probability of a rate cut over the past week has fueled speculation that the Fed may prioritize easing financial conditions amid a slowing economy. For Bitcoin, historically correlated with rate expectations, this could mean further upward momentum if cuts are confirmed.

Market analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's near-term potential. Tom Lee, a prominent crypto analyst, has tempered his $250,000 2025 target, now labeling a year-end all-time high as "just a maybe". Conversely, Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments noted a "bullish Wednesday" before Thanksgiving, citing historical patterns. The asset's performance on Thanksgiving Day-typically a -0.8% average return-will be a key test of its resilience according to Cointelegraph. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $95,000, it risks a breakdown below $80,000, according to TradingView data.

The broader crypto landscape is also shifting. Grayscale's push to launch a Zcash ETF amid a 1,000% rally in the asset highlights growing institutional interest in niche cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, decentralized AI networks like Telegram's Cocoon are attracting attention as privacy-focused alternatives to centralized cloud providers. However, security concerns persist, exemplified by South Korea's $36 million Upbit hack linked to North Korea's Lazarus group.

As the Fed's policy pivot looms, Bitcoin's ability to capitalize on improved liquidity and rate cut expectations will be pivotal. With BlackRock ETF holders no longer under pressure and altcoin activity surging, the market is poised for a volatile December.