Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Falls Below Short-Term Holders' Cost, Spurring Loss-Selling Pressure

Bitcoin's price has dropped below the average buy price for short-term holders, according to on-chain analysis. This development signals rising selling pressure from new market entrants, as short-term holders are now, on average, selling at a loss according to on-chain analysis. The 30-day Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has fallen to 0.98, reflecting the current bearish sentiment among these traders.

The decline in the STH-SOPR has occurred despite a year in which short-term Bitcoin holders recorded profits for 66% of 2025. This apparent contradiction highlights the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market and the frequent swings in profitability for traders operating on short-term horizons. The current price action indicates that the market is in a risk-aversion phase, with traders more inclined to secure small profits or cut losses quickly.

Further complicating the landscape, the potential regulatory exclusion of digital asset treasury firms from major equity benchmarks looms. MSCI is currently consulting on whether to exclude firms whose crypto holdings exceed 50% of their total assets from its global equity benchmarks. Such an exclusion could trigger significant outflows from companies like Strategy, which recently made two consecutive $1 billion Bitcoin purchases according to Bloomberg. The firm now holds 671,268 BTC, valued at approximately $50.33 billion, with an average acquisition cost of $74,972 per BTC according to Bloomberg.

Market Reactions and Institutional Moves

Bitcoin's recent price action has been influenced by both institutional and regulatory developments. Strategy, the company behind the aggressive Bitcoin accumulation, has faced market volatility as its stock underperforms relative to its net asset value (NAV). MSTR is down 44% in 2025, a significant drop compared to Bitcoin's 6% decline over the same period according to Bloomberg. This underperformance has eroded most of the premium that Strategy's shares once enjoyed over the underlying value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Despite this, Strategy remains committed to its Bitcoin-focused strategy. The company has pushed back against the MSCI proposal, warning that such an exclusion could undermine the pro-crypto stance of the U.S. government and potentially harm national security according to Bloomberg. Strategy's resistance to being excluded from major indices is a key factor as it retains its position in the Nasdaq 100, avoiding potential short-term selling pressure according to Bitcoin Magazine.

Analysts and On-Chain Indicators

Analysts are closely monitoring on-chain metrics and broader market sentiment for signs of a potential reversal in Bitcoin's price trend. The current bearish pressure is being driven by both short-term and long-term holders. While the 30-day STH-SOPR has dipped below 1, long-term holder selling pressure is also a concern. K33 Research has noted that prolonged selling by long-term holders is nearing saturation, with around 20% of supply reactivated over the past two years. This saturation could provide a floor for Bitcoin's price if selling pressure from this group subsides.

The market is also watching for Bitcoin to retest key levels. A move above the current STH entry price could signal a shift in sentiment and renewed buying interest. Additionally, the SOPR metric climbing back above 1 would be a strong indicator that short-term holders are once again realizing profits, which could trigger a broader market rebound according to K33 Research.

Risks to the Outlook

While there are signs of potential stabilization in the market, several risks remain. The ongoing regulatory uncertainty, particularly around MSCI's proposed changes, continues to weigh on investor confidence. If the exclusion of digital asset treasury firms from major benchmarks is implemented, it could lead to widespread selling pressure as funds realign their portfolios. This would add to the already challenging environment for crypto markets, which have been trending downward for nearly three months.

Moreover, institutional players such as JPMorgan are introducing new products that could influence market dynamics. JPMorgan's recent launch of an Ethereum-based money-market fund underscores the growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies according to Cointelegraph. However, it also signals a shift in how traditional financial institutions are engaging with the crypto asset class, which could further complicate the regulatory landscape.

As Bitcoin approaches potential support levels, investors and analysts remain cautious. The interplay between regulatory developments, on-chain activity, and institutional strategy will likely determine the next phase in the cryptocurrency's price trajectory.